• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0138

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 9 00:57:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 090057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090056=20
    MSZ000-090200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0138
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0656 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

    Areas affected...northern MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 090056Z - 090200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are gradually intensifying across northern MS early
    this evening. It is uncertain whether a tornado watch is needed.=20
    Short-term convective trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of storms developing
    across northern MS to the north of a mainly stratiform rain area to
    the south over central MS. Surface analysis indicates lower 60s deg
    F dewpoints over northern MS with richer low-level moisture farther
    south (mid 60s along the I-20 corridor). As the mid-level shortwave
    trough continues to pivot towards the region, hodographs are
    forecast to enlarge across northern MS. If storms can become
    surface-based, a tornado risk may potentially accompany these storms
    if/once they evolve into supercells. Otherwise, an isolated
    damaging-wind threat will tend to be the primary risk with the
    stronger storms through the evening hours.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 02/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jV4p5YUYkeWeaOxhZZ9e3SgMFjCt9TdDQivgcgbYIERk_LK12aiCcS_1WjjZShQtPX3-EDK1= rfVX_QAd4d9pgb73hE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33969034 34648972 34858922 34508854 33858866 33318949
    33449028 33969034=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 12 13:32:17 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 121332
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121331=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-121600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0138
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0731 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

    Areas affected...western Florida Panhandle into parts of
    southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121331Z - 121600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe thunderstorms, including supercells
    with the potential to produce tornadoes, still seems likely to
    increase inland of coastal areas. However, an appreciable increase
    in severe probabilities may not occur until closer to midday (10
    AM-Noon CST), across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern
    Georgia, between Albany and Valdosta. A new Tornado Watch will
    probably be needed at some point, though it remains uncertain if by
    the scheduled expiration of Tornado Watch 22.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger recent thunderstorm development is now focused
    within a narrow plume of better pre-frontal low-level moisture
    return off the Gulf of Mexico, across the western Florida Panhandle
    into parts of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. While
    the boundary-layer across this region has yet to destabilize
    appreciably, it appears that this will begin to change through
    midday.=20=20

    It is not clear how much insolation and boundary-layer mixing will
    contribute, but forecast soundings suggest that, as a surface
    cyclone begins to deepen more rapidly across western Alabama,
    low-level thermal and moisture advection will contribute to more
    rapid modification beneath a cooling mid-level environment. This
    may not occur until later this morning through midday (16-18Z),
    across the Tallahassee vicinity into southwestern Georgia between
    Albany and Valdosta. However, once it does, Rapid Refresh forecast
    soundings suggest that this will coincide with enlarging,
    clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strengthening deep-layer
    shear, supportive of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes,
    in addition to severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Hu1ldQkk2tlml0UU-SdnZy0W9y97zLMvViyupOUimx1jKfC5B-UC_Z5CIwaSVXEyEPQ1_0rm= 6RQ6BC1LthMUsNHW9A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 30818645 31908481 31698386 30808409 29558526 28728649
    28998731 29588715 30818645=20


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