• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0137

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 9 00:45:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 090045
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090044=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-090445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0137
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0644 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

    Areas affected...Southeastern WY...northwestern CO...and far eastern
    UT

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 090044Z - 090445Z

    SUMMARY...The potential for snow squalls should increase during the
    next few hours over parts of the central Rockies. Rapid visibility
    reductions in bursts of heavy snow will be possible with the more
    organized squalls.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery indicates increasing
    large-scale ascent overspreading southern WY into northern CO -- in
    the left exit region of an approaching mid/upper-level jet streak.
    Mosaic radar data shows a related increase in snow showers
    along/ahead of an approaching cold front, and this activity should
    continue spreading southeastward into the evening/overnight hours.
    Over the next couple hours, the environment in the vicinity of these
    snow showers should become increasingly favorable for a couple
    organized snow squalls, given steepening low-level lapse rates,
    increasing ascent, and strengthening low-level flow. Rapid
    visibility reductions will be possible in bursts of heavy snow,
    especially with the more organized/banded snow squalls that can
    develop over the central Rockies into the overnight hours.

    ..Weinman.. 02/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VEqErcjRN24CriqgaM4KQZzPC1GHD8I0dmxQTUkMwaeOQ743KQnJ921vJhYMm5aIA8yWkquV= V-D9sgN7jcHR5SNuSw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

    LAT...LON 39130949 40080949 40800922 41370862 41970725 42490614
    42660485 42180416 40990416 39420552 38220698 38000854
    38450923 39130949=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 12 10:16:48 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 121016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121016=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-121245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0137
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0416 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

    Areas affected...parts of far southeastern Mississippi...southern
    Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...23...

    Valid 121016Z - 121245Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22, 23 continues.

    SUMMARY...While the ongoing, slowly eastward advancing line of
    storms may continue to weaken into and beyond daybreak, intensifying
    new thunderstorm development ahead of it may begin to pose
    increasing potential for at least severe hail and locally damaging
    wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Mid/upper flow appears to trending increasingly
    difluent across the north central into northeastern Gulf coast
    vicinity, as a significant upstream short wave trough begins to take
    on more of a neutral to negative tilt across the southern Great
    Plains toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Beneath this regime,
    increasing large-scale ascent, aided by low-level warm advection,
    likely is contributing to an increase in convective development
    offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas into southern
    Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.=20=20

    Across and inland of the coastal waters a shallow moist adiabatic or
    more stable near-surface layer appears to linger based on model
    forecast soundings. However, CAPE for slightly elevated most
    unstable parcels might be as high as 1000 J/kg, which may support a
    continuing increase and intensification of this newer thunderstorm
    development. Latest trends appear to support the High Resolution
    Rapid Refresh depiction that this will become the most prominent
    thunderstorm activity into and beyond daybreak, while the trailing
    ongoing pre-frontal line of thunderstorms dissipates.=20=20

    It appears that this may coincide with notable strengthening of a
    southerly low-level jet off the Gulf of Mexico (40-50+ kt around 850
    mb), with forecasts soundings exhibiting enlarging low-level
    hodographs at least somewhat more conducive to supercells structures potentially supportive of a risk for tornadoes. Otherwise, stronger
    new thunderstorm development may gradually pose increasing potential
    for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts.

    ..Kerr.. 02/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5YRUiEgAZIY3uDtWHX6Ren3S2jRlFg0c3KAUrQhlvSL30Njg1QH_5f-FScHsLc63ulzhCkTBj= ZAO2GTm_y05bI2IwhA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30158885 31098837 31678769 31708655 31778553 30848535
    30258516 29728609 29368737 29278885 29518929 30158885=20


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