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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0135

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 8 22:35:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 082235
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082234=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-082330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0434 PM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

    Areas affected...southwest into central LA...southwest and central
    MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 082234Z - 082330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...As a mid-level disturbance pivots east towards the area
    tonight, flow fields will intensify. It remains uncertain how
    thunderstorm clusters will evolve, but a risk for severe will likely
    increase into the evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed by
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows several clusters of linear storms
    and individual cellular storms across the lower MS Valley as of 430
    pm (2230 UTC). This convection has developed likely in response to
    increasing large-scale ascent and largely the removal of a capping
    inversion (reference 19 UTC Lake Charles raob). The antecedent
    convection will likely limit the overall buoyancy here forward since appreciable convective overturning has occurred in parts of
    southwest MS and into parts of central and southern LA. However,
    water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough pivoting east
    across the southern Great Plains. The flow fields in the low to mid
    levels are forecast to strengthen and this is currently being
    observed at Lake Charles via the 88D VAD. Given this somewhat messy
    convective scenario, it remains a bit uncertain when/where the more
    intense storms will develop in the next 1-3 hours. Nonetheless, the environment will become increasingly favorable for severe storms
    mainly via a tornado/damaging wind threat.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 02/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7e7ue_5AAASJi8jVIMKk8P75detIBBekF0-KLHu5hnf4BbxT1XPsh-oBXfqIcu-Rkir26xfbt= UMcowA6YLg0KQ6KmEA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31099345 31479201 31639139 33389045 33398933 32258925
    30919037 30069160 29969252 30129315 31099345=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 12 01:45:42 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 120145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120144=20
    LAZ000-120315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0135
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0744 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 120144Z - 120315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage later tonight, with at
    least some threat for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...A strong storm has recently developed just off of the
    LA coast, which is now moving onshore. Relatively steep midlevel
    lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (as noted on the 00Z LCH
    and LIX soundings) are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This
    instability in combination with strong effective shear (50+ kt) will
    support supercell potential through the evening.=20

    Storm coverage in the short term may remain isolated, but as a
    mid/upper-level low and attendant cold front approach from the west,
    additional storm development will be possible later this evening.
    Large hail and locally gusty winds will the primary initial threats.
    Some tornado threat could also evolve with time, especially if any
    sustained supercell can move into southeast LA, where sufficient
    low-level shear/SRH will likely persist tonight.=20

    Watch issuance remains possible this evening, if a sustained
    supercell threat appears imminent.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-G-CzvBb9YgpyARXO904VmChx-maxomLsqvlt2HRZfdKEaqMhCMheryr4sedfafHPL3V3RC0U= UGekkfO0K82oBGrctM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29399297 30539239 30859144 30919093 30729056 30279033
    29799044 29429066 29199096 29199139 29229197 29259227
    29399297=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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