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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0131

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 8 17:49:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 081749
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081748=20
    MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-082015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1148 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

    Areas affected...The Texarkana region into the mid-Mississippi River
    Valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 081748Z - 082015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a surface warm front may
    pose a risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, this
    afternoon. Watch issuance is possible as storms mature.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations show a surface warm front
    gradually lifting north across southern AR into the mid-MS River
    Valley. This trend will continue into the late afternoon hours as
    strong low-level warm advection and synoptic ascent persist across
    eastern OK and AR. Consequently, a northward expansion of the warm
    sector is anticipated with mid to upper 60s dewpoints reaching into
    southern AR/northwest MS by mid afternoon ahead of developing
    thunderstorms across the Texarkana region along the cold front
    and/or in the vicinity of the surface low. Despite veering
    near-surface winds, strong flow in the 1-3 km layer combined with
    40-50 knot flow aloft will support elongated low-level hodographs
    favorable for organized convection. Storm motions and deep-layer
    shear vectors oriented largely along the boundary should favor
    thunderstorm clusters and/or linear segments capable of damaging
    winds. A tornado threat may emerge with storms that can become
    rooted in the boundary-layer along the surface warm front where
    low-level helicity may be maximized. Trends will continue to be
    monitored, and watch issuance is possible as storms begin to mature
    and the severe risk becomes increasingly apparent.

    ..Moore/Kerr.. 02/08/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8yg5ObnFiXYB5OAPgRCQb9VkA_Qq6VgDSwrDz29LSQLgbrZBDZrngVcVVrhE8qnR-Dz0ICDcS= 9WfOxkrUuVK7CCnPKc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32279462 32719474 33129456 33589402 34569213 35499053
    35568979 35228936 34568933 33838998 32969100 32639165
    31889304 31819383 32049433 32279462=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 19:56:08 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111956
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111955=20
    MSZ000-112130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0155 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of central MS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19...

    Valid 111955Z - 112130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may persist with
    thunderstorms north of a front this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convection north of a front across central MS has
    struggled to intensify this afternoon, while also acquiring more
    linear characteristics over the past hour or so. Even though this
    small cluster may remain slightly elevated, its close proximity to
    the warm front and gradual/filtered daytime heating occurring
    downstream suggests that strong to locally damaging winds may still
    occur with the stronger downdrafts. Deep-layer shear of 50-55 kt is
    also very supportive of continued thunderstorm organization.
    Isolated severe hail remains possible in the short term with any
    supercell that can develop within or ahead of the ongoing line. This
    activity should persist into AL, but with weaker MUCAPE in place
    with eastward extent, a gradual weakening trend is anticipated later
    this afternoon north of the front.

    ..Gleason.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-pCMyZtAPrXZR3B85fduor6uveeTpmb-j1M6PVesn2P2mM5QHsoXHeCBDtB55HzjaaBdym4pP= H2rhu4n2wyP0RIKzaA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33698996 33758900 33668841 33028854 32858970 32689024
    33329035 33698996=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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