• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Feb 3 01:37:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 030137
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030136=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-030530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0736 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

    Areas affected...Western and northern NY into far northwestern VT

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 030136Z - 030530Z

    SUMMARY...There is increasing potential for snow squalls over parts
    of western and northern NY into far northwestern VT during the next
    1-3 hours. Rapid visibility reductions are possible in bursts of
    heavy snow.

    DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery depicts a few loosely
    organized snow bands tracking east-southeastward across southern
    Ontario and Quebec along/ahead of an advancing arctic cold front.
    Surface observations show a substantial pressure rise/fall couplet
    with this feature. As the front continues southeastward this
    evening, these snow bands may intensify/organize into snow squalls
    as they overspread parts of western/northern NY and northwestern VT.

    The 00Z observed BUF sounding showed a conditionally unstable
    boundary-layer (6.6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates) and strong
    west-southwesterly low-level flow (44-kt BL mean wind) ahead of the
    front. These conditions, coupled with forcing along the cold front
    and strengthening large-scale ascent in the exit region of an
    approaching mid/upper-level jet, generally support snow squall
    development. However, the BUF sounding and surface observations
    indicate dry boundary-layer conditions into western NY -- casting
    some uncertainty on persistence and organization. With that said,
    continued light snow over western NY/related wet-bulb cooling and
    low-level moisture advection off the Lower Great Lakes could yield
    increasing boundary-layer RH, and overall conditions appear
    favorable for snow squalls capable of quick visibility reductions in
    bursts of heavy snow.

    ..Weinman.. 02/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xvKu7cM4k9Jzn79qfyPoXcwJd4xj6M8GV740ydAz6Z25t3ozN6K0BGnwHcFXSar39XMKB4_5= foTtM6MRmyOVNLgAXQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44367324 43517529 42807679 42777788 43007854 43327873
    43457838 43497739 43627683 44117651 44667580 45037503
    45077398 45097300 44937282 44367324=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 17:04:37 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111704
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111704=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-111900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1104 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Louisiana into southern
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 111704Z - 111900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, possibly strong, and very large
    hail will develop this afternoon along the warm front in central LA
    into southern MS. A tornado watch is likely for parts of these
    areas.

    DISCUSSION...Upper 60s F dewpoints are present south of the slowly
    lifting warm front across central LA/southern MS. A cirrus plume
    associated with the subtropical jet has generally shifted east
    allowing at least broken surface heating into the low 70s F. With
    time, additional heating should promote 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the
    afternoon. Deep-layer shear is more than adequate for supercells,
    which are already ongoing in southeast Texas moving roughly parallel
    to the warm front. Supercell storms that can remain near the
    boundary will take advantage of enhanced low-level shear/SRH. There
    are signs of modestly deepening boundary-layer rolls in the vicinity
    of central LA/southwest MS. This is a potential area for additional
    storm development later today, which has also been hinted at by
    recent HRRR runs. Mid-level ascent is currently weak so it may take
    more time for any potential development to occur. Given the
    environment, tornadoes, some potentially strong, and very large hail
    (1.75-2.75 in.) are possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed
    within the next 2 hours, unless storms develop along the warm front
    sooner than anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_xcVjWRg5aCJIqAvA2_yMQd8GW3HdkMLd-CvJCwiM8kxHpGp75aD3FN66Fd-zZY8Tss_UBnse= zEPNTRxbug73kEska4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31079341 31129336 31499279 32089135 32568941 32578863
    32258861 31588922 31168991 30859061 30649154 30409246
    30239321 30439360 30809354 31079341=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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