• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0127

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Feb 2 17:37:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021737
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021736=20
    MIZ000-021930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

    Areas affected...Northern Michigan

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 021736Z - 021930Z

    SUMMARY...A snow squall is moving southeast across northern Michigan
    early this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Convergence is strengthening along a cold front as it
    moves southeast across northern Michigan and southern Ontario. As a
    result, a line of higher reflectivity has appeared within a broader
    area of moderate snow across northern Michigan. A broad wind field
    is present with 15 to 20 mph winds and gusts 25 to 30 mph. However,
    within this line, KAPX velocity data shows wind speeds approaching
    35 knots. This corresponds well to RAP forecast soundings which show
    mixing to around 2km where winds are near 50 knots and boundary
    layer maximum winds are around 30-35 knots. Therefore, in addition
    to the heavy snow, expect the convective line to contain wind gusts
    up to 40 mph. This will likely result in reduced visibility,
    potentially below 1/4 mile, and the potential for whiteout
    conditions.

    ..Bentley.. 02/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-GGXYCz4x-XFy1Pw5SDNyXP3Yc7C43XI2v3t7GeMyknEtMH7pTEWFFl9U9SAuPcm5EiLQ3tm7= 6JGwZNVwE8t_ZPkGxc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...

    LAT...LON 44068366 44078436 44348513 44538544 44658554 44998478
    45298376 45398344 45208324 44918320 44458321 44208331
    44068366=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 16:57:10 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111657
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111656=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-112100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0127
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1056 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

    Areas affected...West to northwest Texas

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 111656Z - 112100Z

    SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates approaching 1
    in/hour should continue into the early afternoon hours across
    portions of west to northwest Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past 1-2 hours across
    western TX have reported periods of visibility reductions down to
    1/2 to 1/4 mile, indicative of moderate to heavy snowfall rates.
    This trend is expected to persist for the next few hours as lift
    within the left-exit region of an upper jet continues to coincide
    with a mid-level deformation zone at around 700 mb. While the
    dendritic growth zone is expected to remain somewhat shallow (around
    50-100 mb deep), ascent through the 700-500 mb layer with lapse
    rates approaching 7-8 C/km should continue to promote moderate to
    heavy snowfall rates up to 1 inch/hour. Weak frontogenesis should
    limit the potential for long duration snow bands, but latest
    forecast guidance suggests that favorable overlap of mid/upper-level
    ascent will linger over west to northwest TX through early
    afternoon.

    ..Moore.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8R3557tm7IxA8B0H5iExJI9f4unNGUav_W9uV_d5lUNGs8uoZ9WM0dRQoCsuRs2jiAjqpyl7s= 5UmrKjqp_CauIcxnd0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...

    LAT...LON 34730173 34740092 34680017 34519985 34249969 33939969
    33649984 33430016 33410058 33370131 33440205 33490231
    33740273 34070294 34370283 34610248 34730173=20


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