ACUS11 KWNS 021104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021103=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of southern Arkansas into portions of the
western half of Tennessee

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 021103Z - 021600Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, falling at rates in excess of 0.05"/hour,
on average, with higher amounts locally, will continue falling
through mid morning from parts of southern Arkansas portions of the
western half of Tennessee

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a zone of precipitation
extending from central and northeastern Texas streaming
east-northeastward into/across the Tennessee Valley area. This
precipitation is occurring within a zone of isentropic ascent atop a
cold boundary layer, in advance of a slowly-eastward-moving upper
system, currently centered in the vicinity of Far West Texas.

Present indications are that as this system slowly advances, the
persistent upglide will continue to support the ongoing
precipitation band, with the heaviest amounts likely to extend from
the Arklatex vicinity to the Tennessee Valley.

Latest analysis of surface temperatures shows that most of
northeastern Texas, and a majority of northern Louisiana remain
above freezing, with a wavy 32 degrees F isotherm extending across
southern Arkansas, northeastward to northern Mississippi, and into
Middle Tennessee. North of this isotherm, freezing rain is expected
to continue, becoming somewhat heavier in parts of the area over the
next couple of hours, before eventually diminishing gradually, later
this morning. This evolution is supported by the latest RAP
forecast, which shows the heaviest amounts of freezing rain likely
to occur within this area, and also by latest HREF output which also
hints at this scenario.

..Goss.. 02/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Jnnykk4JIkNfBZC-pjH3_pAntpEGqbm8UK9NAewnf-_z7envd_MGX4rpCxg0MfT4L-W0IsVK= GZkspjmzvzUXax0PUk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33149328 33389360 33879416 34609242 35298960 35698902
35888841 36228716 35808719 35488785 35038893 34298976
34379074 33609093 33749175 33149209 33099301 33149328=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 111626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111625=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-111800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast LA...far southeast AR...and
central MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 111625Z - 111800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The persistence of elevated supercells capable of
producing large hail remains uncertain into Mississippi. Downstream
watch issuance is possible, but will remain dependent on convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell across northern LA produced
numerous reports of large hail around 1.5 - 2.5 inches in diameter
as it moved across Shreveport LA earlier this morning. This activity
has since weakened slightly and become more linear, as it may be
outpacing the better mid-level lapse rates plume and greater MUCAPE
available across east TX into central LA. Still, ample deep-layer
shear of 50-60 kt will support continued updraft organization with
any convection that can strengthen and persist along/north of a
surface front draped across central LA/MS. So long as these
thunderstorms remain clearly elevated, large hail would remain the
primary severe risk. Given that MUCAPE is only slowly increasing
along/north of the boundary into central MS, it remains unclear
whether the threat for large hail will become sufficient enough to
justify Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance with elevated supercells.
Greater tornado potential is expected to remain along/south of the
front, and will be addressed in a separate Mesoscale Discussion
later.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PbXGGe0Kt4JAPWd5PoMLvxKR7efc5dmpfk3KNRfNe9wJIRAiyu7g5OVDvPISaLSLLBB0iT8a= 2c8CD2F7iPwGKJzgEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON 33199195 33379140 33619066 33708946 33568853 32978867
32499005 32249113 32349185 32849192 33199195=20


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