1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0125

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 1 23:31:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 012331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012330=20
    ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-020530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0125
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern North Texas...eastern
    Oklahoma...and much of central Arkansas

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 012330Z - 020530Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain should gradually expand in coverage and
    intensity this evening. Moderate freezing rain with rates of 0.05+
    in/hr will be possible beneath heavier banded structures.

    DISCUSSION...As of 23:20 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a large
    area of stratiform precipitation from roughly the DFW Metroplex,
    gradually expanding northeastward across portions of eastern OK and
    the ArkLaTex. Driven by low and mid-level warm advection centered
    over portions of eastern TX, precipitation has encountered
    increasingly dry mid-level air north of the Red River evident on
    area RAP soundings. This has prevented more widespread/steady
    moderate freezing rain from developing across portions of eastern OK
    and AR so far. However, recent decreasing trends in surface dewpoint depressions suggests saturation is becoming deep enough to sustain
    moderate freezing rain at the surface. With continued warm advection
    expected ahead of an upper low moving out of northern MX/southern TX
    later this evening, precipitation should continue to spread
    northeastward and intensify over the next several hours. Areas
    farther north and east will be slower to saturate, but should fully
    transition to steady freezing rain at the surface after 02-03z.

    Hi-res guidance also depicts a favored corridor for locally greater
    freezing rain rates across portions of southeastern OK into portions
    of west-central AR later this evening. Located upstream of recent,
    weakly convective showers over northeast TX, locally higher freezing
    rain rates in excess of 0.05-0.1 in/hr will be possible tonight.
    Given surface temperatures several degrees below the latest hi-res
    guidance, significant icing impacts are possible with several hours
    of persistent freezing precipitation.

    ..Lyons.. 02/01/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6QfJuvAA8OFp-SI0yqdWw0-aNtcVnf7wE4MtO_QBOMmVRaLoTpfIdbc6_18lFzv1xAQ7Vux45= 0Dg1Re-n9mBm4JXpSc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34419707 35079644 35859508 36199347 36019243 35809202
    35559172 34739159 33929199 33769245 33769281 33859325
    34239396 34239428 34109467 33529556 33429596 33399638
    33909728 34419707=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 15:21:06 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111521
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111520=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-111645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0125
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0920 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of far northeast TX and northern LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16...17...

    Valid 111520Z - 111645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16, 17
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain the primary severe threat
    with elevated supercells this morning, but occasional strong/severe
    winds may also occur.

    DISCUSSION...A pair of elevated supercells will continue to move
    eastward over far northeast TX and northern LA over the next couple
    of hours. Even though MUCAPE remains fairly modest, generally
    500-1000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis, ample cloud-layer shear with long/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels is easily supporting
    continued supercell intensity. Large hail, potentially up to 2-2.5
    inches in diameter, will remain the primary severe hazard this
    morning given the tendency for this severe convection to remain
    elevated well to the north of a surface boundary draped across
    southeast TX into central LA. Even so, a recent wind gust to 59 mph
    was measured at KSHV with the northern-most supercell. Occasional
    strong to severe winds may occur with the more intense downdrafts
    able to penetrate the near-surface stable layer.

    ..Gleason.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-06Cc1tjOh5rmaLD54qGOC94BzjTwfkYDiaDwf5oJ4PZ9hGrQythU3gYOwWzWNU9dii_m-QF= 9_nN-uyhJVpNwvHbIs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31729477 32509399 32709394 32879371 32949232 32399208
    31649242 31359412 31489468 31729477=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)