• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0119

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 31 17:04:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 311703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 311703=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1103 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

    Areas affected...Northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma...and much of
    western and central Arkansas

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

    Valid 311703Z - 312100Z

    SUMMARY...Sleet/freezing rain is expected to continue through
    mid-afternoon with some thunderstorms possible.

    DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield has developed this morning
    in a region of frontogenesis/isentropic ascent across the southern
    High Plains where temperatures are mostly below freezing. This has
    resulted in freezing rain across much of Texas and sleet into
    Oklahoma where the cold air is deeper/warm nose is not as strong.
    This warm nose is pronounced enough for some elevated instability.
    Some weak instability was evident on the 12Z FWD RAOB, but based on
    current thunderstorm observations, has likely evolved to be greater
    (250-400 J/kg), similar to the RAP forecast soundings. These
    forecast soundings show some elevated instability persisting to near
    central Arkansas, before decreasing later this afternoon. Therefore,
    expect the more convective element of the winter precipitation (and thunderstorm potential) to be greatest between now and mid-afternoon
    from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. A combination of sleet
    and freezing rain will be possible with sleet more favored farther
    north and freezing rain to the south.

    ..Bentley/Mosier.. 01/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dfyTWxIvlggXIqXOu7Vp4zYXjU0B8V0N45ZpVY_HON88Gj8Gc1C5Abn_rATFFF-BXX6ydbtm= ZJOGuqWhbSX2x20MGE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33009495 32659576 32279656 32269688 32949705 34619655
    35409637 36299463 36359231 35489170 34549207 34519210
    33469345 33009495=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 11 03:28:57 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 110328
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110328=20
    MSZ000-110530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0119
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of south-central MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110328Z - 110530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be
    ruled out as a convective line moves eastward late this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Modest intensification of a convective cluster and
    embedded line segment has been noted over the last hour, to the west
    of Jackson, MS. Despite warm late evening conditions and dewpoints
    in the low 60s F, weak lapse rates are limiting instability across
    the region, with MLCAPE likely less than 300 J/kg along/downstream
    of the line. However, recent lightning activity suggests that
    convection has deepened somewhat across southwest MS. With strong
    low-level shear/SRH (0-1 km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2) noted on the
    KDGX VWP, organized convective elements may develop and persist
    within this cluster as it moves eastward through late evening, with
    a threat for locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5zDFHkQnoRpT6jnTgiJbYI5rdyHnrI5Lswc8OOnZaCM--tn1qMVuUB3nOeXXoj0rhRb92SCkl= ndg5QCuxYgTKZTxPno$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32699027 33058931 32908883 32288896 31938927 31828975
    31859028 31879076 32079071 32699027=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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