ACUS11 KWNS 311703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311703=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-312100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas affected...Northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma...and much of
western and central Arkansas
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20
Valid 311703Z - 312100Z
SUMMARY...Sleet/freezing rain is expected to continue through
mid-afternoon with some thunderstorms possible.
DISCUSSION...A broad precipitation shield has developed this morning
in a region of frontogenesis/isentropic ascent across the southern
High Plains where temperatures are mostly below freezing. This has
resulted in freezing rain across much of Texas and sleet into
Oklahoma where the cold air is deeper/warm nose is not as strong.
This warm nose is pronounced enough for some elevated instability.
Some weak instability was evident on the 12Z FWD RAOB, but based on
current thunderstorm observations, has likely evolved to be greater
(250-400 J/kg), similar to the RAP forecast soundings. These
forecast soundings show some elevated instability persisting to near
central Arkansas, before decreasing later this afternoon. Therefore,
expect the more convective element of the winter precipitation (and thunderstorm potential) to be greatest between now and mid-afternoon
from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. A combination of sleet
and freezing rain will be possible with sleet more favored farther
north and freezing rain to the south.
..Bentley/Mosier.. 01/31/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dfyTWxIvlggXIqXOu7Vp4zYXjU0B8V0N45ZpVY_HON88Gj8Gc1C5Abn_rATFFF-BXX6ydbtm= ZJOGuqWhbSX2x20MGE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33009495 32659576 32279656 32269688 32949705 34619655
35409637 36299463 36359231 35489170 34549207 34519210
33469345 33009495=20
=3D =3D =3D
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