• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0117

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 31 01:48:27 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 310148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310147=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0747 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas into western
    Tennessee

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 310147Z - 310745Z

    SUMMARY...Rain will gradually transition to moderate and locally
    heavy freezing rain tonight. Freezing rain rates may approach
    0.1-0.2 in/hr at times.

    DISCUSSION...As of 01:30 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a broad
    area of rain and occasional mixed precipitation ongoing across
    portions of central AR. Recent surface observations show surface
    temperatures falling to near or below freezing over the last couple
    of hours across portions of northeastern AR and far western TN. 00z
    RAOBS and SPC mesoanalysis also show a prominent warm nose (+2 to +4
    C) driven by moderate low and mid-level warm advection over the Mid
    MS Valley. With surface temps falling below freezing, rain should
    transition to freezing rain over the next couple of hours as the
    main precipitation band shifts north and east. Hi-res model guidance
    suggests some banded or weak convective structure may produce
    freezing rain rates of 0.1-0.2 in/hr at times. Freezing rain should
    continue for several hours overnight with the potential for sleet
    and mixed precip later this evening as the boundary layer continues
    to cool from strong surface cold advection.

    ..Lyons.. 01/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wcPBKzyQBPq3SwRzif4uRCbY5l5L79nsKa4NRtJ5cKbosHmvzTbPIIrcSP8zXmvreKFbxPGg= HXA_pykM5txXXYc0VY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35639244 35849172 36189057 36408928 36388889 36098851
    35728853 35458899 35198983 35119066 35089192 35199256
    35639244=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Feb 10 19:21:26 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 101921
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101920=20
    TXZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101920Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest
    thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the
    short term.

    DISCUSSION...Convection across parts of central TX has recently
    shown some signs of intensification as a subtle mid-level vorticity
    maximum ejects northeastward over the southern Plains within a broad
    zone of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. This activity should tend
    to remain elevated this afternoon, being located generally
    along/north of a weak boundary evident in 19Z surface observations.
    Even though low-level moisture remains limited, modest steepening of
    mid-level lapse rates and filtered daytime heating beneath a thick
    cirrus deck have allowed around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop
    across this region.

    Recent VWPs from KEWX/KGRK show weak low-level flow veering and
    strengthening with height above 3 km, and especially above 6 to 8
    km, where a very strong southwesterly upper-level jet is present per
    latest mesoanalysis. Long, nearly straight hodographs through the
    cloud-bearing layer, with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, should
    support supercells with associated threat for mainly severe hail
    this afternoon. Strong/gusty winds may also occur with any supercell
    near the front as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes.
    Regardless, large-scale ascent is fairly weak, and overall coverage
    of robust thunderstorms remains uncertain. This, coupled with only a
    marginally favorable thermodynamic environment, suggests that the
    overall severe threat will probably tend to remain fairly isolated
    over the next few hours. Therefore, watch issuance is unlikely in
    the short term.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/10/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-l0KtYbir4UBCVFi2na9_ksU6ZajZtoXjhdgxvW2JaTx65GnRTcm_s_yL-mHkx5Zmf0vxetnx= PnKCsNfi5aO9YBWYls$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29449997 30289963 31409872 31329796 30839710 30529697
    30109717 29299824 29179886 29449997=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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