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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0111

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 26 07:52:39 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260752
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260751=20
    MEZ000-261345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0111
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

    Areas affected...northern Maine

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 260751Z - 261345Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow -- with rates averaging 1" to 2" per hour -- is
    expected over the next several hours across northern portions of
    Maine.

    DISCUSSION...Intense ascent -- evident in water vapor loop and
    hinted at in composite radar reflectivity loop -- is ongoing across
    northern New England, ahead of a very strong/negatively tilted
    short-wave trough and north of the attendant surface low currently
    analyzed over the MA/CT/RI area.

    As the surface low shifts north-northeastward along the Maine
    coastline overnight, and to New Brunswick by roughly 12z, the zone
    of strong low-level warm advection will continue to support
    widespread/heavy precipitation across the area. With time, the warm
    advection will allow a transition to above-freezing low-level
    temperatures that will encroach on central Maine. However, the
    lower troposphere is expected to remain below freezing through the
    early morning across northern Maine, allowing several hours of heavy
    snowfall rates, before the low moves north of the area and some dry
    slotting reduces precipitation rates.

    ..Goss.. 01/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_2my5F4b5-KwdcOPKZtky_ZOTyKlElj8CyfvWTS6PRdLoSkCQhoA9R8ZoGZNYB7zGb_WdmsoS= 7iEnqappphYjNCAFcE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 45756990 45917050 46687013 47566927 47416805 47036765
    46446799 45756990=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Feb 5 13:31:13 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 051331
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051330=20
    FLZ000-051530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0111
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0730 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of the FL Keys and extreme southern
    mainland FL.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 051330Z - 051530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts, hail near severe limits,
    and conditional/brief tornado potential may occur with a band of
    thunderstorms moving up the Keys and brushing the southernmost
    mainland.

    DISCUSSION...At 1315Z, the primary band of thunderstorms extended
    from EYW to Cape Sable, along and south of an outflow boundary from
    earlier convection that was analyzed over northern portions of FL
    Bay and eastward across the Straits just southeast of HST. This
    activity occasionally has had an embedded supercell over open water,
    and has produced several reports of small hail, as well as
    strong/subsevere gusts around Key West (42 kt at EYW and 41 kt at
    NQX). While the predominant mode should remain quasi-linear, an additional/isolated supercell or bowing segment may develop within
    the band as it proceeds eastward over the remainder of FL Bay, the
    middle/upper Keys, and southern Miami-Dade County.

    The outflow boundary should drift northward amid modest ambient flow
    (generally 5-10-kt surface winds), but also, may maximize low-level shear/vorticity locally. The air mass to its north remains
    unfavorable, per modified 12Z MFL RAOB, but the modified/proximity
    KEY sounding showed a layer of steep low/middle-level lapse rates
    and greater moisture content that has supported the activity then
    not far to its north through southwest. Veering of flow just above
    the surface limits hodograph size somewhat; however, 100-200 J/kg
    effective SRH and 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes still have
    been evident along and south of the boundary.

    ..Edwards.. 02/05/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TiQSpAPmfFBnmYEPV2JeWMEP6Edmi_jvzXUiXL7UGusZheJQAZzU5f0FTiqvDzSaoByFtOe4= EhD1es6tj846ZjJB1w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

    LAT...LON 25488086 25598029 25518013 25058039 24738093 24568151
    24558170 24738163 24848143 24848121 24788110 24898084
    25028060 25188049 25118068 25168090 25488086=20


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