• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0106

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 25 15:37:05 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 251536
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251536=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-251700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0106
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0936 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023

    Areas affected...Southern GA...Eastern FL Panhandle into northern FL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 30...

    Valid 251536Z - 251700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts will remain possible, particularly
    along the coast, within the convective line moving across southern
    GA, the eastern FL Panhandle, and northern FL. Overall limited
    severe potential should preclude the need for a watch downstream
    across northern FL.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorm
    extending from southwest GA southwestward through the central FL
    Peninsula and off the coast at AAF. Individual cells within the line
    are moving northeastward at around 35 kt, while the line itself
    moves eastward at about 16 kt. This motion takes the northern
    portion of line to the edge of Tornado Watch 30 within the next
    hour, and the southern portion within the next two hours.=20

    VAD wind profile at TLH continue to show strong wind fields, with 50
    kt recently sampled at 1 km. However, buoyancy within the air mass
    remains limited, evidenced by the low storm tops and somewhat
    anafrontal structure across much of the line. Convective wind gusts
    have also been muted as the line moves through, with surface
    observations sampling only modest gusts. Expectation is for this
    general trend to continue as it progresses eastward over the next
    few hours, limiting the downstream severe potential.=20

    Even so, given the strong low-level flow, a few stronger gusts and a
    brief tornado could still occur, particularly close to the coast.
    Overall limited severe potential is expected to preclude the need
    for a watch downstream across northern FL, but convective trends
    will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 01/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FGYJUbBc9TkHimL6Y9Nqfo1ztEFrY6Rg0gVauT0z-HDXosTQl_6SZt5rfX2mN_jDVCGABqiq= Zs3lGIFkFnV7KjvzRA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29668495 30278464 30698440 31338412 31508364 31318313
    30898285 30288275 29778285 29478315 29478347 29528377
    29588420 29668495=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 4 19:02:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 041902
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041901=20
    FLZ000-GAZ000-042100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0106
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0101 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern FL Panhandle into Northern FL and Far
    Southeast GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 041901Z - 042100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped supercells capable of damaging gusts
    and brief tornadoes are possible across northern FL and far southern
    GA this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 35 miles
    north of AAF in the central FL Panhandle. A warm from extends east-northeastward from this low into extreme southeast GA/northeast
    FL, while a cold front arcs southeastward to the Tampa Bay vicinity,
    remaining mostly offshore. Radar imagery from KTLH has shown several
    low-topped rotating storms near the warm front just east/northeast
    of TLH. Given the lack of buoyancy, updrafts are likely being
    augmented by favorable interaction with the warm front, with the
    strong low-level shear then resulting in tornadogenesis. Additional
    development is occurring south of the warm front, and there is some
    chance that continued interaction with the warm front could result
    in another brief tornado.

    A somewhat separate regime is developing within the warm sector
    downstream of the approaching Pacific cold front. Clearing within
    the dry slot is allowing for filtered heating and steepening of the
    low-level lapse rates. At the same time, cold mid-level temperatures
    continue to advect over the region, with 500-mb temperatures likely
    dropping to -20 deg C across much of northern FL by later this
    afternoon. Shallow thunderstorm development is expected along and
    ahead of the front across northern FL this afternoon. Veering
    low-level flow will be in place, and the potential for a few
    low-topped supercells exists. However, buoyancy will be modest and
    is expected to limit both updraft strength and duration, leading to
    uncertainty on the number and coverage of supercells. This
    uncertainty tempers the overall watch probability, but convective
    trends will be monitored closely this afternoon for potential watch
    issuance.

    ..Mosier/Goss.. 02/04/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HUB3klp70ZeLdzWppNVTmrmYEkXqvKpO0RhOqGuHIIi2Ald9jBZ0lgfvI0wZn2qurf-FWJVt= SRGQ59oltNTygwAYe0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30358457 30748417 30868296 30628162 29968143 29088214
    29198300 29808378 30358457=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)