ACUS11 KWNS 250544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250544=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Areas affected...southern portions of IL...IN...and OH

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 250544Z - 251145Z

SUMMARY...Broad precipitation will continue to overspread the region
from around 06-12z. Localized heavy snowfall rates greater than
1"/hr will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The low-level precipitation field continues to expand
in advance of a negatively tilted upper-level trough ejecting over
the central CONUS. Snowfall rates of 1"/hr have been reported from
eastern OK northeastward through southeastern MO, and in some areas
localized snowfall rates around 2"/hr have been observed. The broad precipitation band responsible for these snowfall rates continues to
translate northeastward in tandem with 700-mb frontogenesis and
mesoscale isentropic ascent. These features are expected to persist
for the next several hours and produce 1"/hr snowfall rates through
12z, generally advancing from west to east across the outlined area.
Snowfall rates of 2"/hr or greater will be possible in localized
areas where enhanced forcing overlaps non-zero potential buoyancy
(10-20 J/kg MUCAPE) in the dendritic growth zone.

..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7TRhG6QSQ7J_QFWHmlMANMez4BgBEL4vygt5i3O38Pqt-_pawioGOrIQUYuZzlHxEUiNK3DuC= ZzEoGiZarsyp7I9ya0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37198956 37399036 37929051 38469002 39188841 39818684
40478462 40608266 40298174 39718176 39148221 38908311
38748421 38478545 38188653 37648835 37198956=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 030220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030220=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-030345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of northern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13...

Valid 030220Z - 030345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across northern parts of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13, over central into northern TX.
Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat with a squall-line
moving across the region.

DISCUSSION...A squall line has become established from Wichita to
Kimple Counties in TX and is progressing eastward amid a marginally
sheared and buoyant airmass (i.e. 30+ kts of effective bulk shear
and 500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Surface temperatures have cooled into the
lower 60s F. However, the 00Z FWS observed sounding suggests
convective inhibition is negligible (despite a thin CAPE profile),
with a hodograph characterized by enlarged low-level curvature and
some elongation. As such, isolated damaging gusts may still
accompany the squall line for at least a few more hours. A brief
QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out with any embedded mesovortices
that can become established within the squall line.

..Squitieri.. 02/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iMI-vjAIvqq2mFtx2TWG650U_j_ut9TXaonz_ETGNKblxDiWZjJGSCuhAyNjuSwCrLmM0fYX= 4aP0Ivr8185EjQ-oPs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30799921 31049919 31669894 32759860 33619835 33889790
33219746 32139771 31199815 30949841 30729909 30799921=20


=3D =3D =3D
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