ACUS11 KWNS 022104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022103=20
TXZ000-022330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024
Areas affected...South-central into northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 022103Z - 022330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storm development is possible late this
afternoon, and will become increasingly likely this evening. Large
hail is expected to be the primary threat, though isolated severe
gusts and possibly a tornado cannot be ruled out. Watch issuance is
possible by late afternoon or early evening.
DISCUSSION...At 2045 UTC, a Pacific cold front/effective dryline
extended from the western TX Panhandle southeastward into parts of
northwest TX, and then southwestward toward western portions of the
Edwards Plateau into the Big Bend region. High-based convection has
developed west of the front across the Permian Basin region, in
association with deep mixing and large-scale ascent attendant to a
upper-level trough that is approaching west TX from the southern
Rockies. East of the front, low-level moisture remains rather modest
with dewpoints in the 50s F, but MLCAPE is still expected to
increase into the 1000-1500 J/kg range as cold temperatures aloft
(-18C to -20C at 500 mb) and steep midlevel lapse rates overspread
the region.=20
While substantial capping persists across the warm sector, continued
heating along the western periphery of the low-level moist axis will
act to reduce MLCINH through late afternoon. With time, ongoing
high-based convection may intensify as it moves into better moisture/instability, with additional development possible near the
front by early evening from northwest TX southward to near the Rio Grande.=20=20=20
The onset of the greater severe threat remains somewhat uncertain,
and may hold off until early evening, when stronger large-scale
ascent begins to impinge across the warm sector. The most
conditionally favorable environment is expected to evolve over the
Edwards Plateau/south-central TX, where stronger mid/upper-level
flow and greater hodograph elongation is expected this evening.
Isolated supercells capable of large to very large hail will be
possible in this area, with some threat for localized severe gusts
and possibly a tornado, depending on the extent to which
surface-based convection can be sustained. A few organized
cells/clusters will also be possible into parts of northwest TX.
Watch issuance is possible in order to cover these threats, though
timing remains somewhat uncertain.
..Dean/Goss.. 02/02/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4zFwaOUTJ6-C8-wS2WaKSSv4PvrmORPbjLJI4cX6B1Fmk9p3-qNeHyW2MBbl_quC3SqIuSTAP= dR1af8Hwikb2OZKWLk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29580151 29820185 30100191 30580184 31080160 31520130
32480075 32830031 33249894 32369818 30339802 28969835
28039895 28029945 28000006 28460053 29290129 29580151=20
=3D =3D =3D
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