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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0080

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 19 21:50:30 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 192150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192149=20
    PAZ000-OHZ000-192315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2023

    Areas affected...Northeast Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192149Z - 192315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The highest potential for strong/severe winds gusts will
    likely exist near the shore of Lake Erie in northeast Ohio. Limited
    areal threat may preclude a separate downstream watch issuance.
    However, additional coordination with WFO Cleveland will occur and
    may result in local extension of WW 26.

    DISCUSSION...Dry air continues to advect into eastern Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Dewpoints are in the mid/upper 30s F with the
    exception of near the Lake Erie shore where low/mid 40s F remain. A
    couple of strong storms have recently developed in northwestern
    Ohio. Going forward, strong forcing from the eastward propagating
    shortwave trough will continue to bring potential for strong/severe
    wind gusts. The threat will be constrained to areas where moisture
    is greater which is currently along the lake shore. Given the
    limited area of concern, a downstream watch is not currently
    anticipated unless observational trends suggest a more organized
    wind threat.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 01/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4G3fNLTw8VLjZgw5aRbe-sfqeJIh58MIPfbhAia0yOThe0_vmRsLTHECDi3rAG5s5-3Kx1952= DuhJWAMYmuS2h-5Yt8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41318233 41578203 41978098 41958045 41478018 41148023
    40768084 40458187 40518213 41318233=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 22 01:07:19 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 220107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220106=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-220500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0080
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024

    Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 220106Z - 220500Z

    SUMMARY...Increasing potential for freezing rain with potential for
    quick ice accumulations.

    DISCUSSION...A region of light to moderate precipitation is observed
    moving northeastward into southwestern Oklahoma over the last hour.
    Surface temperatures are hovering around freezing near the Red River
    with a drop into the upper 20s moving northeast. With dew points in
    the teens, further reduction of temperatures through wet-bulb
    cooling can be expected as the heavier precipitation moves
    northward.=20

    The 00z sounding from OUN shows a pronounced warm nose from 925 mb
    to around 800 mb with surface temperatures below freezing. Though
    some dry air remains around 750 mb and near the surface, the profile
    has moistened. It is noteworthy that hi-res guidance is generally
    running a little warm over the last 12-24 hours in trends when
    compared to RTMA. The RAP and HRRR seem to be coming into better
    alignment with current conditions over the last 3-6 hours.
    Expectation is for freezing drizzle and rain to increase in coverage
    over the next few hours across southeastern Oklahoma. Locations
    that are already below freezing will likely see quick icing,
    especially across elevated surfaces. Given that ground temperatures
    are already below freezing, this will likely impact travel with
    slick conditions developing quickly through the next few hours.

    ..Thornton.. 01/22/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FwmSzT3gkKvRJLjfMNEF5EaNaVORyIkrytAokOGiYugJLiw_CRA8JZAwvh43zf7JN9d4wLUc= -kvxzoiQOKFZyzlryo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34409839 34739806 35189754 35339717 35429687 35479670
    35509649 35529618 35489581 35339562 35099550 34869540
    34629538 34369540 34169546 33979576 33869601 33819636
    33839667 33869713 33879733 33899783 33989814 34079836
    34409839=20


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