ACUS11 KWNS 181854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181853=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-190000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas/southeastern
Nebraska into southwestern Iowa and far northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 181853Z - 190000Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and mixed precipitation with rates of
0.05-0.15 in/hr will continue with moderate precipitation over the
next several hours. A transition to heavy snow and rates of 1+ in/hr
is expected later this evening farther north.

DISCUSSION...As of 1840 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
showed a broad area of moderate to heavy precipitation associated
with a surface low across the central Plains and Midwest. Recent
surface obs across southeastern NE and northeastern KS indicate
freezing rain and mixed-phase precipitation is ongoing northeast of
the surface low with rates of 0.05 to 0.15 in/hr. Area RAP soundings
show moderate warm advection ongoing ahead of the low supporting
broad isentropic ascent and slight warming in the 1-3 km layer.
0.5-1 C temperatures in this layer will support moderate to locally
heavy mixed-phase precipitation and freezing rain for the next
several hours. A transition to snow may develop later this afternoon
into the early evening as warm advection weakens and dynamic cooling
reduce column temperatures below freezing. However, the best dynamic
lift will likely shift north keeping higher snow rates shorter in
duration.

Farther north across eastern/northern NE/IA, a deeper reservoir of
cold air at the surface and drier mid-levels will likely favor a
faster transition to all snow coincident with the strongest dynamic
lift. Here, brief mixed precip/freezing rain and eventual snow rates
greater than 1 in/hr are likely late this afternoon and through the
evening hours.

..Lyons/Grams.. 01/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kSK1WoMY2M0uCTYZwCYv27egPcgrNdozdstwVLYZb-e5Il4yr_eMAQLPY-6qQ5bsgbEwRNXb= Px0tcd3W0W50jxmZvw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 40039530 39749594 39619684 39639768 39919834 40139842
40429836 40659827 40959793 41369696 42089558 42369492
42489370 42459321 42139263 41509299 41079345 40729402
40039530=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 161350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161349=20 MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-161745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 161349Z - 161745Z

SUMMARY...Locally moderate winter precipitation rates will spread
northeastward this morning, with some modest ice accretion possible
where freezing rain persists.

DISCUSSION...A surface low currently off of the Mid Atlantic coast
is forecast to gradually deepen as it moves northeast toward coastal
southern New England this morning. Multiple waves of light to
locally moderate precipitation are ongoing and will continue to
spread northeastward in conjunction with the surface low. While
interior portions of the Northeast will likely continue to see snow
(with generally light to moderate rates) this morning, low-level
warm advection will support a transition from snow to sleet across
parts of southern New England, with freezing rain persisting over
portions of the Mid Atlantic region.

As the low deepens offshore, a modest uptick in precipitation
intensity will be possible through the morning. While rates will
likely remain light to locally moderate, antecedent cold conditions
(with temperatures initially in the 20s F) may result in relatively
efficient ice accretion in areas that transition to freezing rain.
Pockets of moderate sleet/snow will also be possible into parts of
southern New England. Low-level warm advection will support a
gradual transition to rain along the Mid Atlantic and southern New
England coasts, but subfreezing temperatures may persist inland
through the morning.

..Dean.. 01/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xSMzW3GDAv0rhH7c_XGZhgKCxN2KsSTdBtIRg27OVcZoUDzMSAyd4C1mIpy_W6FcJ0l_xIgn= MxWo7B0988P7n8MDt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...LWX...

LAT...LON 39497504 38747620 38747652 39137660 39727603 41187450
42147322 42607220 42787134 42627089 42347101 41377217
40937321 40307434 39497504=20


=3D =3D =3D
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