• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0055

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 19:00:27 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121900
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121900=20
    ALZ000-122000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0055
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0100 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...central AL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 18...

    Valid 121900Z - 122000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 18 continues.

    SUMMARY...A strong to intense tornado (~EF3) is likely ongoing
    across central AL and after tornado demise, a wind-damage risk will
    likely continue into east-central AL.

    DISCUSSION...KBMX radar imagery shows an intense low-level
    mesocyclone moving through an adequately moist/moderately buoyant
    airmass across central AL. SPC data analytics indicates a
    strong/intense tornado is likely ongoing across Autauga County, AL.=20
    The area VAD/s show large hodographs with 300 m2/s2 0-0.5 km
    effective SRH. The strong shear/buoyancy will likely aid in
    sustaining the supercell after eventual tornado demise once the
    squall line overtakes the supercell. Nonetheless, a significant
    wind-damage threat and some tornado risk will likely continue into
    eastern AL through the mid afternoon.

    ..Smith.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6gZGYXTXcHM4cGHsaZhXV-cqlxpkIP6J7d8rA87nPZqEwFM3v_lWrD7_Qm-fZ2x6IXKQHRGft= PMtJ67JB3wmh4Q9yAI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...

    LAT...LON 32638663 32998588 33028569 32888557 32778559 32488627
    32508662 32638663=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jan 12 16:25:30 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 121625
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121624=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-122030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0055
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and southern
    Wisconsin

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 121624Z - 122030Z

    SUMMARY...Areas of 1+ in/hour snowfall rates appear probable within
    a broader swath of moderate snowfall across eastern Iowa into
    southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois through early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past couple of hours have
    been reporting visibilities between 1/4 to 1/2 mile from eastern IA
    into southern WI and far northern IL. Sustained 20-25 knot winds
    across eastern IA are supporting areas of blowing snow per blowing
    snow model output and web cams, which is contributing to the reduced visibilities. Further east into WI/IL, weaker winds suggest moderate
    to heavy snowfall rates are the primary contributors to the reduced
    visibility. Regional radar mosaics support this idea with relatively
    short (~1 hour) snow bands noted over the past hour. These bands
    appear to be mainly driven by strong warm air advection within the
    0-2 km layer based on regional VWP observations. Despite the
    magnitude of the warm air advection, 12 UTC and recent RAP forecast
    soundings suggest this ascent is displaced from the DGZ within the
    3-4 km layer. This will modulate snowfall rates across the broader
    region, but heavier snowfall rates at/above 1 in/hour will be
    possible within the transient snow bands. This trend should continue
    through early/mid afternoon before stronger ascent within the warm
    advection regime shifts northeast with the synoptic low.

    ..Moore.. 01/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Pc2ckq4dWillG6kPH7B1eihhXCO99Z0RZWRKwwcAvhQ3EGUpMp0sTTu3Yev4gz1HSrLqACx2= BzeP8VUe0GEHQahJbo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 42298784 42288865 42098933 41709012 41229071 40879134
    40829179 40969224 41859276 42199268 42539238 43209128
    44258906 44358860 44458819 44478769 44388732 43928757
    43318770 42818768 42488762 42298784=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)