• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0049

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 15:02:25 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121502
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121501=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-121700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0049
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0901 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...central into eastern MS...west-central
    AL...southwest AL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

    Valid 121501Z - 121700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for a couple of tornadoes will continue this
    morning, including the possibility for a strong tornado. An
    additional tornado watch will likely need to be considered for far
    southeast MS into southwest and south-central AL later this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and single-site 88D data show a broken
    band of embedded cluster and quasi-discrete supercells from 40 mi
    WSW of Tuscaloosa extending southwestward to 30 mi W of Hattiesburg.
    Analysis of upper-air RAOB data this morning shows relatively cool
    mid-level profiles with -15.7 deg C at Birmingham and -14.1 deg C at
    Jackson. Although surface dewpoints are only in the lower 60s over
    central AL and low-mid 60s in southern MS, the quality of the
    moisture through a 100-mb deep layer above the surface is notable
    when combined with the cool mid-level temperature profile. RAP
    forecast soundings this morning into the midday hours show buoyancy
    around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE with large low-level hodographs. As a
    result, the mesoscale environment appears favorable for a tornado
    risk from eastern and southeastern MS northeastward into
    west-central AL over the next few couple of hours. A strong tornado
    is possible. The activity over southeast LA and southern MS will
    eventually shift eastward into far southeast MS and southwest AL
    towards the midday.

    ..Smith.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_E76l9PhYEb9BhzNkms6JPxRGTfCnMZtmUmg-TgRvN4WdzMshlwXeKGOP8keRt6ulPppfqRIj= WAJyHWGEibQ2zRf_X4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31938992 33208831 33468768 33378734 33048726 32758743
    31428925 31408985 31479003 31938992=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jan 12 08:41:59 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 120841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120841=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-121015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0049
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0241 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA...central/southern AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

    Valid 120841Z - 121015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

    SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is expected with time.
    All severe hazards are possible. New watch issuance is likely before
    the expiration of Tornado Watch 9.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 0830 UTC from
    northeast TX into AR, in advance of a strong mid/upper-level
    shortwave trough moving across north TX. Low-level moisture
    continues to gradually increase across the effective warm sector,
    with MLCAPE currently in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. As a 100+ kt
    midlevel jet associated with the approaching shortwave impinges upon
    the ArkLaTex region, already-favorable deep-layer flow/shear will
    continue to increase, and increasingly organized/sustained storm
    structures are expected to evolve through the morning.=20

    Discrete cells have struggled to mature in advance of the main
    convective line thus far, though a couple prefrontal supercells may
    evolve with time, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards.
    Otherwise, the severe-wind threat is expected to increase as the
    primary convective line accelerates eastward through the morning.
    Strong low-level flow/shear will support some threat for significant
    (65+ kt) gusts, as well as some potential for line-embedded
    tornadoes.=20=20

    With WW 9 scheduled to expire at 4 AM CST and some severe threat
    likely to spread well downstream, new watch issuance is likely for
    parts of the MCD area a little later this morning.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 01/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8jDCreXR6xP2OTn9UGZdJeggxC21pD5q2-0vQqSCnwMk5DKyfkLpUTajIOINNEPDQCXouKnBn= o8trMu1vu33iS4pgw8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31199642 32749531 33599457 34789348 35169278 35229186
    35189145 34879127 34289147 33499182 32579262 32109340
    31749423 31469502 31199642=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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