• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0047

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 12:38:55 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 121238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121238=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-121445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0047
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0638 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...east-central Mississippi into central and northern
    Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 121238Z - 121445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity across
    Mississippi and continue into Alabama. A few tornadoes, damaging
    gusts, and hail will all be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage across the warm
    sector, well ahead of the cold front and beneath cooling aloft over
    MS. The 12Z JAN sounding shows moist profiles below 700 mb, and an
    uncapped air mass with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s F. Although
    SBCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg, temperatures aloft will continue to
    cool as heating commences this morning across much of southern MS
    and AL. As such, storms should strengthen with time, with increasing
    rightward propagation/storm-relative inflow. Effective SRH over 200
    m2/s2 will thus be realized later today, and will support supercells
    with tornado risk. Long hodographs overall will support fast-moving
    storms as well, with massing outflows resulting in damaging winds.
    In addition, hail will be likely with the stronger/mature storms.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-C8rHk_3zq1lGduFafiK7dUE2KNy4LKjl8n8VsA06Svgy-ld-0CgrU9MJexf20nyILkmxqMin= Mwr_uSzdG3Bl9dPZ9g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31788945 31778996 31959033 32259033 32629021 32709018
    32998977 33748886 34588804 34898760 34858690 34548666
    33888658 33338670 32888697 32098828 31788945=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jan 12 05:45:27 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 120545
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120544=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-120745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0047
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

    Areas affected...Arklatex

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 9...

    Valid 120544Z - 120745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the western half of
    ww009 over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel
    vort advancing east across the TX South Plains. Leading edge of
    large-scale support is spreading across north-central TX in
    association with left exit region of midlevel jet. Over the last
    hour or so, IR imagery suggests convection has gradually been
    deepening along the front, from east of SEP-DFW-southeast of Sherman
    TX. Lightning is now observed with this activity over Collin County
    and further strengthening is expected along the wind shift over the
    next few hours. Latest thinking is substantial increase in
    convection should be noted along the advancing front across the
    western portions of ww009 by 07z. While the frontal convection may
    become more linear with time, very strong shear supports the
    potential for supercells. Damaging winds are expected with this
    convection along with some risk for tornadoes.

    ..Darrow.. 01/12/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!715dCsRLF2T2YC0MKRWF8yGRiEpIA4Z2CUShllm2FllY-ivjkkiZvcQJyxIDzIOm8rJhrvUBF= DX_5FLcJhdceQRH6V8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33989640 35639230 33309230 31669639 33989640=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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