• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0044

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 12 06:42:20 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 120642
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120641=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0044
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1241 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

    Areas affected...the Missouri Bootheel area and surrounding states

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 120641Z - 121015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms will spread across the region, and a few could
    produce hail over 1.00" diameter and strong wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered storms currently extend from northern AR into
    southern MO, with the strongest storms over northern AR near a warm
    front. While cooling aloft is occurring farther west into southwest
    MO and northwest AR, low-level warm advection will continue across
    northeast AR and toward the lower OH Valley tonight.

    Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates aloft and strong
    deep-layer shear, with modest instability overall as boundary-layer
    dewpoints rise into the upper 50s to near 60 F. While SBCIN and cool temperatures may mitigate tornado risk, supercells/bowing structures
    may still occur with the primary threat hail and locally strong wind
    gusts. The most likely area for severe appears to be associated with
    the activity over northeast AR near the warm front, and as this
    evolves northeastward tonight. A watch could be considered should
    storm trends increase.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 01/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!95LzIu5D5BK2C_JH2DvEDFeIukfen41tWblvbfaatyThJsIGgQHu-sCTHgMekymqmO0Sa1v7G= T-K2fwvFM6v4Jnid4w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35809079 36279093 36849034 37348934 37418862 37168810
    36738795 36218817 35848887 35618996 35809079=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jan 11 17:25:53 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 111725
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111725=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-WAZ000-112030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0044
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1125 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

    Areas affected...portions of northern Idaho into extreme western
    Montana

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 111725Z - 112030Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow should continue for at least a few more hours,
    with 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates common. Reduced visibility is likely
    in the heavier snow bands.

    DISCUSSION...A low-level cyclone is drifting southeast across the
    Idaho Panhandle into extreme western Montana as a mid-level impulse
    traverses the International border, providing deep-layer ascent.
    Latest mesoanalysis and RAP forecast soundings characterize vertical
    profiles as near saturated, with deep-layer steep lapse rates,
    supporting a sufficiently deep and moist dendritic growth zone to
    support continued 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates given strong lift in
    place. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests that at least brief
    bouts of heavy snow and perhaps reduced visibility should continue
    through at least 21Z.

    ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_sdyjJV7IxIrYg88srnM1V8kR_HKtAi5BS7cOXnxoOcE9yqS5c6gKb5IJcRIpbuyMg6cNDhRS= uaHSwIEyP9KRXcHg1E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MSO...OTX...

    LAT...LON 46821614 47311678 47791724 48091710 48401652 48321593
    47821523 47331468 46911470 46791560 46821614=20


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