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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0034

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 4 15:21:49 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041521
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041521=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-041715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0034
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0921 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023

    Areas affected...central South Carolina vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

    Valid 041521Z - 041715Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

    SUMMARY...Zone of relatively enhanced severe potential -- including
    risk for a brief tornado or two -- is evident across central South
    Carolina, within Tornado Watch 13. New WW may be needed farther east-northeastward, to the Coastal Carolinas.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to depict a generally
    nondescript squall line crossing the Carolinas/Georgia/the Florida
    Panhandle at this time. Within the broader line, a more complex
    segment -- which includes some bowing/LEWP-type structures -- is
    moving across central South Carolina. Storm-relative velocity data
    from the KCAE (Columbia SC) WSR-88D has revealed a couple of
    small/weakly rotating updrafts embedded in the band, suggestive of
    enhanced potential for a brief tornado or two relative to areas
    farther south along the line. Locally damaging wind gust potential
    is also elevated in a relative sense, along this portion of the
    line.

    Given the roughly 35 to 40 kt east-northeasterly advance of this
    convection, the storms will approach the northeastern corner of WW
    13 over the next hour and a half or so. At this time, indications
    are that a new WW -- extending into northeastern South Carolina and
    adjacent southern North Carolina -- may be needed. With a noted
    increase in coastal destabilization from the Outer Banks vicinity
    southward -- coincident with diurnal heating in the less cloudy
    environment east of the main convective cloud shield -- potential
    exists that storms may maintain intensity into coastal portions of
    the Carolinas. The late-morning 1630Z Day 1 outlook will also note
    this potential, with a northward expansion of SLGT risk.

    ..Goss.. 01/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kyHyP9cucv4O_vYfCsLh7Dl6rO92hEU_43Xhi2d3Ul__eWiQR_Gai5eM67KWTya4AvJIIVYj= Iqxw7xIw109PJZw03s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 33018197 34078170 34398096 35097735 34027771 33227935
    33018197=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 9 18:33:14 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091833
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091832=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-091930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0034
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern/Central North Carolina and southern
    Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 091832Z - 091930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong southeasterly flow is destabilizing eastern North
    Carolina and southern Virginia. This will increase the severe
    weather threat this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Instability is currently weak across much of North
    Carolina. However, southeasterly moisture advection is gradually
    destabilizing the airmass. By later this afternoon, some damaging
    wind threat is expected to materialize as the squall line moves into
    more substantial Gulf Stream moisture. Given the very strong wind
    field, even the current weak instability could support some damaging
    wind gusts with the threat increasing through the afternoon. The
    strong low-level speed and directional shear will support some
    tornado threat, but mid 60s dewpoints will likely be needed for a
    more substantial threat, which will not arrive until later this
    afternoon across eastern North Carolina.

    A watch will be issued soon to address this threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5k6mbO1Cq8aVS7psM4AUPXTrjp5t2nzozY6sSVDu04hsT53sP0u7pieYI-JGWL7kdM-ExHzVO= C3RJdZPzZDrZbKY5gw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

    LAT...LON 35618023 36108034 36448043 36758043 37017936 37117857
    37007748 36317702 35737698 34917672 34677671 34517703
    34247752 33807783 33677800 33687836 34707955 35618023=20


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