• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0033

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 4 13:08:19 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041307=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0033
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0707 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023

    Areas affected...Georgia...Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 12...

    Valid 041307Z - 041500Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 12 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue this morning from eastern
    Georgia southwestward into the Florida Panhandle. Wind damage and a
    tornado threat will exist along the leading edge of a convective
    line. New weather watch issuance may be needed to the east of WW 12.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery in the eastern Gulf
    Coast region shows a multi-segmented line of organized convection
    from central Georgia extending southwestward into the western
    Florida Panhandle. The storms are located along an axis of weak to
    moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000
    J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Robins Air Force Base
    has a clockwise-turning hodograph with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots,
    and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 475 m2/s2. This
    environment will continue to support supercells associated with wind
    damage and an isolated tornado threat. Wind damage will also be
    possible along the leading edge of short bowing line segments. The
    threat should remain somewhat isolated through mid morning but
    additional weather watch issuance could still be needed.

    ..Broyles.. 01/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4S46shxH0hGiT5k2GYaxWJ-nvO95cwR7Nov2lYbou3GQoL_nbCKc_CY2x7r-WhQYmTu4eB_Y3= dCSHsnzb1N3oDk-kok$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 33548294 32598363 31708432 31158502 30848551 30528587
    30288586 29928557 29648526 29588404 29928327 30578256
    31518186 32368151 33018177 33548294=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 9 18:16:42 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091816
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091816=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-091945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0033
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of north FL and coastal/southeast GA

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 4...5...

    Valid 091816Z - 091945Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 4, 5 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado threat continues with small cells embedded
    within a line of thunderstorms moving quickly eastward.
    Severe/damaging winds also remain a concern.

    DISCUSSION...The line of thunderstorms across southeast GA has
    become a bit more broken recently, with a couple small cells noted.
    Extremely strong low-level shear remains present along/downstream of
    this activity across north FL and coastal/southeast GA, with recent
    VWPs from KJAX showing around 50 kt of 0-1 km shear, and effective
    SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2. Low-level rotation has been noted with
    these small cells, and a tornado threat remains apparent given the
    very favorable kinematic environment. With some modest daytime
    heating also occurring (surface temperatures generally reaching into
    the low to mid 70s), steepening low-level lapse rates should promote
    efficient downward momentum transfer of the very strong flow just
    off the surface. Severe/damaging downdraft winds will remain a
    concern with the more linear structures as the overall line advances
    quickly eastward through the afternoon.

    ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-PN79-wIzDSfNTis_OEL0eVTtUajlwrEFI4k7E-R26uGwS5i7Lj7aAYnKbfI2FpYT1CekFcle= DqrIhwIi0Rk5zZPvUQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29898334 30918299 32518231 32618172 31878108 31138134
    29618180 29898334=20


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