• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0029

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jan 4 01:45:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 040145
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040145=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-040315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0745 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

    Areas affected...Central Gulf States

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 040145Z - 040315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected as the
    evening progresses, with it a risk of wind and perhaps a tornado or
    two. A new watch may be warranted.

    DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer air mass is expected to gradually
    respond across the lower MS Valley due to an approaching short-wave
    trough over Texas. Low-level flow should become a bit more
    convergent which should encourage additional convective development
    and perhaps more robust updrafts. Over the last hour or so, a fair
    number of thunderstorms have matured from south-central LA into
    east-central MS. Several supercells are observed along this corridor
    and an upward tick in coverage/intensity may be noted as the evening progresses. Overall, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should
    become more noteworthy prior to frontal passage. A new watch may be
    warranted to account for this risk.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pE1dW1cvuYO3DfEbHCxENSvOAgZV7wKADLcIYNio6imZveuw5Kka-ecXxEqKMuWLkFu68DFk= apvQPfSV7AgVSjYRIE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33368894 34458732 33108640 31688832 33368894=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 9 15:13:17 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091512
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091512=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-091815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0912 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...northwest Illinois...and far
    southwest Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 091512Z - 091815Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per
    hour are expected into the early afternoon. Strong winds will lead
    to blowing, drifting, and reduced visibility.

    DISCUSSION...A 987mb surface low currently southeast of St. Louis
    this morning will continue to deepen through the day as it moves
    north into Michigan and deepens below 980mb. Within the last hour,
    snowfall rates have started to increase across eastern Iowa within
    the deformation region of the cyclone. Expect this moderate to heavy
    snow to shift eastward into northern Illinois and Wisconsin during
    the day in response to the deepening/moving cyclone. Winds are
    already around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph but are expected to
    strengthen further to around 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph this
    afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Widespread blowing and
    drifting snow is expected with localized blizzard conditions
    possible.

    ..Bentley.. 01/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7iPPqKHS6ptgMddDTAdUNuViKwFvIrsGcMuJAkA1RmhAPh6IAqDov5Aqur7IWV2rBlGhhEhfR= y81jcsT_DKfoPQDSfo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40859304 41019375 41789363 42189297 42798981 42608890
    41898904 41178951 40559126 40859304=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 9 15:16:59 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 091515
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091515 COR
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-091815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...northwest Illinois...and far
    southwest Wisconsin.

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 091515Z - 091815Z

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT SURFACE LOW LOCATION

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow with rates of 1 to 2 inches per
    hour are expected into the early afternoon. Strong winds will lead
    to blowing, drifting, and reduced visibility.

    DISCUSSION...A 987mb surface low currently northeast of St. Louis
    this morning will continue to deepen through the day as it moves
    north into Michigan and deepens below 980mb. Within the last hour,
    snowfall rates have started to increase across eastern Iowa within
    the deformation region of the cyclone. Expect this moderate to heavy
    snow to shift eastward into northern Illinois and Wisconsin during
    the day in response to the deepening/moving cyclone. Winds are
    already around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph but are expected to
    strengthen further to around 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph this
    afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens. Widespread blowing and
    drifting snow is expected with localized blizzard conditions
    possible.

    ..Bentley.. 01/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ucZa_i5kha0Ee3oEvqF3OuJUTAWnUiTerDr0wPN7EYSNW5POIrmTuB06VUpBbTtG5aDbAVqY= FRXcGOtdjC1wcy68h4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40859304 41019375 41789363 42189297 42798981 42608890
    41898904 41178951 40559126 40859304=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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