• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0025

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 3 20:07:40 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 032007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032006=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-032230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0025
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 032006Z - 032230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
    across south-central IL this afternoon. Locally damaging gusts,
    isolated large hail, and a tornado or two are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery and regional VWP data show a
    mid-level speed max over MO approaching portions of western IL,
    where a north-south oriented baroclinic zone is moving eastward. As
    the related large-scale ascent overspreads the front, isolated
    thunderstorm development is possible in the vicinity of the front.
    Storm development will be aided by continued boundary-layer
    moistening/heating and related destabilization in the presence of
    large-scale ascent. In fact, a few showers are developing along the
    baroclinic zone southeast of St. Louis.

    Ahead of the front, lower 60s dewpoints beneath cold temperatures
    aloft will contribute to moderate surface-based instability amid
    strengthening deep-layer shear characterized by long, generally
    straight hodographs (45-50 kts effective bulk shear oriented oblique
    to the front). As a result, a couple of loosely organized, splitting
    supercell structures are possible in south-central IL this
    afternoon. Large hail and a tornado or two are possible with the
    initial discrete activity. With time, cell interactions and
    localized upscale growth could favor a greater damaging-wind risk
    with eastward extent. While clouds have cleared over western IL,
    lingering cloud cover over eastern IL casts uncertainty on robust,
    sustained storm development. A watch issuance is not expected,
    though trends will be monitored.

    ..Supinie/Weinman/Hart.. 01/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6oB7o7htZozcY4UJk28lptnUUynnNFeOc6r4Z4H1qGmOIck5ATT9AMqrMFAGfrB_Wa5cWmM0O= YLhUczTzUwspyXqvQA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 38448815 38058863 37738914 37678954 38009008 38469011
    39228999 39688978 40078948 40288913 40498849 40448786
    40218770 39728762 39188773 38448815=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 9 08:46:16 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 090844
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090844=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0025
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 AM CST Tue Jan 09 2024

    Areas affected...from far southeast Louisiana into southern Alabama
    and the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

    Valid 090844Z - 091045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest tornado risk remains within the warm sector,
    currently from far southeast Louisiana into southwest Alabama and
    the western Florida Panhandle.

    DISCUSSION...A prominent cold front and squall line continue to move
    rapidly east across far southern MS and southeast LA, and this
    should move offshore before 10Z. East of the cold front, strong
    southerly winds continue to aid airmass recovery from the MS Coast
    into southwest AL and the western FL Panhandle, with dewpoints over
    67 F common. This is contributing to over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
    Meanwhile, area VWPs show extreme low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH
    of 300-500 m/s, the strongest values being along the warm front.

    Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some supercells, continue to
    develop and move north over the northern Gulf of Mexico and into the
    western FL Panhandle and southern AL. This region is near the warm
    front, and the influx of higher surface theta-e air values may
    support an increasing tornado risk over the next several hours. The
    very strong shear could yet yield a strong tornado.

    ..Jewell.. 01/09/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wLdcbiLj6PWsrhbiaHCVq8eqmuJaA5OMHZ81FM8kKzVBzADPamdNg-M53cu3hw904J4pnZ2q= M0NzJPVDwxG7tuecJM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29508982 30228942 30758907 31368870 31568857 31758805
    31808736 31608683 31058635 30408640 30358663 30268717
    30178769 30208826 30148850 30158870 30068875 29808875
    29578893 29428917 29348940 29328957 29378976 29508982=20


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