ACUS11 KWNS 030517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030517=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast TX...Northern
LA...Southern/eastern AR...Northwest MS...Western TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 030517Z - 030715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
will continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...An extensive plume of convection is ongoing late this
evening from northern LA into parts of central/eastern AR, with
periodic low/midlevel rotation noted with embedded organized
clusters and bowing segments. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear
within the warm sector of a deepening cyclone over the central
Plains will continue to support organized convection overnight
across the region. Widespread precipitation will continue to limit
buoyancy across much of the area, with the greatest relative threat
expected with organized storm structures along the southern/eastern
periphery of ongoing convection, where somewhat warmer surface
temperatures (near 70 F) and greater instability (MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg per objective mesoanalyses) are in place. Bowing segments and
embedded supercells will remain possible overnight, with a primary
threat of locally damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes.

..Dean.. 01/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4826doyxf9XQTxj8mLmzUr0ydLMDTZeGc4RX0ughBINCCWGFCQAb-EOfq9bBjmmHjKX2IaK9w= S-ARqX4Jf8-pdZJTIw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32059460 33649327 34529203 35449072 35988952 35478928
34658960 33459052 32349146 31549256 31399312 31089419
31599449 32059460=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 081541
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081540=20
TXZ000-081745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected...East Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081540Z - 081745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered elevated thunderstorms over east Texas may begin
to pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores. Watch issuance seems
unlikely at this time, but trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/satellite loops show scattered showers and thunderstorms slowly intensifying over parts of east TX. This
activity is along the core of a strong southerly low-level jet, and
north of a surface warm front. Parcels near the surface remain
stable. But forecast soundings in this area show steep mid-level
lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient elevated CAPE for the risk of a
few robust updrafts. Low-level/deep-layer shear is quite strong,
which would support at least transient supercell structures as well.
So far, trends of this activity have remained below severe limits,
and model guidance suggests it may still be several hours before a
more focused severe threat develops. Nevertheless, trends will be
closely monitored for an increasing risk.

..Hart/Gleason.. 01/08/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9bjP-cW9CtHtpH_TxSrwkr6p3Yp204JeyZts-73flnGu5E1ayQqc31SUsCkEcc3q_C0-DEDv= hImuzD5pMELXE5VHhQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29979458 29649605 30029757 31229744 32349683 32629549
32239408 30929390 29979458=20


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