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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jan 3 00:01:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 030001
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 030001=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0601 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

    Areas affected...East TX into central/northern LA and southern AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

    Valid 030001Z - 030130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue through the evening. Some
    threat may spread east of WW 1, and downstream watch issuance is
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing from central/northern
    LA into AR early this evening, within a modestly unstable (MLCAPE of
    1000-1500 J/kg) and favorably sheared environment. Thus far,
    discrete supercells have largely struggled to maintain themselves
    due to storm interference, though an earlier embedded supercell
    produced an apparent tornado near/northeast of Jonesboro, LA within
    the last hour. An already strong low-level jet is forecast to
    increase through the evening, especially from northern LA into AR,
    which will maintain tornado-favorable wind profiles across the
    region.=20

    In the short term, the greatest risk of embedded supercells may be
    along the southern/eastern periphery of the ongoing convective
    cluster across northern LA, where somewhat more favorable low-level
    lapse rates are being maintained, compared to areas embedded in
    heavy precipitation. This risk will gradually spread east of WW 1,
    and downstream watch issuance is possible this evening as storms
    spread into far northeast LA/southeast AR.=20

    Farther west, convection is gradually increasing in coverage again
    from east TX into southwest AR. While some of this area saw
    widespread convection earlier today, persistent low-level moist
    advection may support some modest recovery across this region this
    evening, with wind profiles remaining favorable for supercells
    and/or organized line segments and an attendant threat of damaging
    wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ttfeahq_WPIGIXhEZktwH2bVD8skq9PDHVVy6tOs_zvSAhy-gq4m3rzup0-7WKNhCBYCHjYt= fwYmgY-7Gw-SDjzgX4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 30979316 31059403 31429484 31919519 32449539 33209524
    34419419 35119330 35109245 34779179 34429151 33859140
    33509147 32699174 31669243 30979316=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 8 13:00:06 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 081300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081259=20
    TXZ000-081530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0659 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

    Areas affected...north TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081259Z - 081530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A developing squall line over western north TX will
    continue eastward across north TX this morning. The risk for a
    strong gust is likely very low.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from near
    San Angelo northeastward to Wichita Falls. The squall line is
    currently projected via linear extrapolation to move into the
    western suburbs of the DFW Metroplex around 11am CST (17 UTC).=20
    Surface analysis indicates relatively cool temperatures (near 50 deg
    F) over north TX within a strong low-level warm-air advection
    regime. The 12 UTC Fort Worth raob showed 500 J/kg MUCAPE with a
    cool/stable layer below 850 mb. Additional temperature/moisture
    advection will gradually warm/moisten the lowest 0.5 km AGL, but
    overcast skies and showers preceding the squall line will limit
    heating this morning. As a result, the propensity for surface-based instability will probably be negated and the squall line will likely
    remain elevated. Given this expectation, the risk for strong gusts
    will be low in association with the passage of the squall line and a
    severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be needed.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/08/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9UUgicC4zMawyx1x6aGfO8m6Z9MLUc4MihaZyr45qRvlD5zhtmqWKyntVUWNSbCO2nt6qWfVX= sj38guLakU2e_hpP9o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33319861 33559678 33379642 33049634 32599641 32269669
    32029897 32359912 32719906 33319861=20


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