• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0005

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 2 20:03:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022002
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022002=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-022200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central OK...northeast/north-central
    TX...far southeast KS...northwest AR...and southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 022002Z - 022200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards including
    tornadoes is increasing, and a tornado watch is likely this
    afternoon for much of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data shows a gradual increase in
    showers and isolated thunderstorms from east-central OK southward
    into parts of northeast TX this afternoon. This activity is
    developing along the western edge of the warm sector, where
    middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints are in place. Water vapor
    loops show strengthening midlevel ascent overspreading this portion
    of the warm sector, and cloud breaks are favoring modest
    boundary-layer heating/destabilization. The 18Z observed FWD/OUN
    soundings showed weakening convective inhibition at the base of a
    pronounced EML, which coupled with the increasing large-scale ascent
    and boundary-layer heating, should support additional thunderstorm
    development during the next few hours.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the destabilizing boundary-layer
    will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the warm sector. This
    moderate instability, combined with 45-55 kt of effective shear and clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH)
    should initially support discrete or semi-discrete supercells
    capable of all hazards including tornadoes. These storms will
    generally track northeastward across the expansive warm sector, with
    some tendency for local upscale growth with time. A tornado watch
    issuance is likely for portions of the area this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-qIaE1A0Bw9X7NX02Wiv3ABiihOZlo01tbXgkGWCfo70AW-so8ZLSZuSl-pZKuew8xk8AoEiI= HDvCtVTpQmDqUrDzRQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36269714 36889677 37159634 37269549 37229459 37009406
    36569360 35949342 35089399 33059530 32849622 32939707
    33519767 34809766 35659744 36269714=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 6 15:52:17 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 061551
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061551=20
    FLZ000-061715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0005
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0951 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

    Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061551Z - 061715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging
    wind may develop from late morning into early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...At 1545 UTC, organized convection is approaching parts
    of the central/southern FL Gulf Coast from the Gulf of Mexico.
    Morning observed soundings from KTBW and KMFL depicted only very
    weak buoyancy, and substantial cloudiness and precipitation in
    advance of the stronger storms will continue to limit
    destabilization across much of the peninsula. However, some modest heating/destabilization will be possible to the south of the more
    extensive precipitation, where temperatures are currently rising
    into the mid 70s F.=20

    Wind profiles (as noted on the TBW sounding and preconvective VWPs
    from KTBW) remain quite favorable for organized convection, with
    enlarged low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2)
    supporting a conditional tornado threat if any supercells and/or
    line-embedded mesovortices can be sustained inland later this
    morning into the early afternoon.=20

    Later this afternoon, low-level flow will begin to veer and weaken
    as the primary midlevel shortwave trough and surface low move
    quickly northeastward away from the region. However, there may be a
    period of time late this morning into the early afternoon where
    organized convection will pose a threat of a couple tornadoes and
    locally damaging wind. Watch issuance is possible depending on
    short-term trends regarding destabilization and storm organization.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 01/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-CYGzyS_6ouG9RXAOchxzGz1y2eeC8DkkFlJZPCqjeZ4jxT6QTvtTS2peQVlLWJyLk3jb389U= 24Prc6i6QeZvJBanDo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 27388248 27838228 27728099 27128048 26418052 26028075
    25928095 25878135 26048197 26338224 26478236 26618254
    26938255 27388248=20


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