ACUS11 KWNS 021928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021928=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030000-
Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Parts of Nebraska and far northwest Iowa
Concerning...Freezing rain=20
Valid 021928Z - 030000Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch/3 hours is
possible this afternoon/early evening across parts of NE into far
northwest IA -- especially northeast NE in the 21-00Z time frame.
DISCUSSION...The nose of a strong south-southwesterly midlevel speed
max will gradually overspread western OK and southwest KS this
afternoon, with related strong DCVA emerging over parts of NE in the
21-00Z time frame. This midlevel ascent, coupled with strengthening low/midlevel isentropic ascent, will support an increase in
precipitation focused along a southwest-northeast-oriented
low/midlevel baroclinic zone across parts of south-central NE
northeastward into far northwest IA.=20
Current surface temperatures through this corridor are in the 32-34
F range, and light precipitation and related wet-bulb cooling this
afternoon will support surface temperatures in the 30-32 F range
before precipitation rates increase over the area. These
sufficiently cold surface temperatures beneath a substantial warm
nose at 850-mb should favor freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch
per 3 hours given the strengthening/focused ascent. Confidence in
these rates is greatest in northeast NE and perhaps into far
northwest IA between 21-00Z. North of the expected freezing-rain
corridor, colder thermodynamic profiles should favor mixed winter
precipitation including areas of heavy snow. Of note, upslope flow
and favorable freezing-rain thermodynamic profiles over southeast WY
into the NE Panhandle are yielding freezing drizzle, and these
conditions could persist into the evening hours as well.
..Weinman.. 01/02/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!73bfPKhuzhl72kJ1vFnNFGahTF6zuG1Nv3TQAKtsnl3zxU6evXlocsDpm95BGsaDNYbh7HKad= gFioe7U8qioVJlCUUM$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40160026 40060132 40460157 40900088 41350009 42169894
42639814 42809719 42769614 42289597 41499708 41129784
40479941 40160026=20
=3D =3D =3D
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