• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0004

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jan 2 19:29:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021928
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021928=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of Nebraska and far northwest Iowa

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 021928Z - 030000Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch/3 hours is
    possible this afternoon/early evening across parts of NE into far
    northwest IA -- especially northeast NE in the 21-00Z time frame.

    DISCUSSION...The nose of a strong south-southwesterly midlevel speed
    max will gradually overspread western OK and southwest KS this
    afternoon, with related strong DCVA emerging over parts of NE in the
    21-00Z time frame. This midlevel ascent, coupled with strengthening low/midlevel isentropic ascent, will support an increase in
    precipitation focused along a southwest-northeast-oriented
    low/midlevel baroclinic zone across parts of south-central NE
    northeastward into far northwest IA.=20

    Current surface temperatures through this corridor are in the 32-34
    F range, and light precipitation and related wet-bulb cooling this
    afternoon will support surface temperatures in the 30-32 F range
    before precipitation rates increase over the area. These
    sufficiently cold surface temperatures beneath a substantial warm
    nose at 850-mb should favor freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch
    per 3 hours given the strengthening/focused ascent. Confidence in
    these rates is greatest in northeast NE and perhaps into far
    northwest IA between 21-00Z. North of the expected freezing-rain
    corridor, colder thermodynamic profiles should favor mixed winter
    precipitation including areas of heavy snow. Of note, upslope flow
    and favorable freezing-rain thermodynamic profiles over southeast WY
    into the NE Panhandle are yielding freezing drizzle, and these
    conditions could persist into the evening hours as well.

    ..Weinman.. 01/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!73bfPKhuzhl72kJ1vFnNFGahTF6zuG1Nv3TQAKtsnl3zxU6evXlocsDpm95BGsaDNYbh7HKad= gFioe7U8qioVJlCUUM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 40160026 40060132 40460157 40900088 41350009 42169894
    42639814 42809719 42769614 42289597 41499708 41129784
    40479941 40160026=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 6 12:53:52 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 061253
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061253=20
    FLZ000-061530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0653 AM CST Sat Jan 06 2024

    Areas affected...west coast of FL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061253Z - 061530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A low risk for a localized damaging thunderstorm gust
    and/or brief tornado will seemingly focus near the west coast of the
    FL Peninsula through 11am EST.

    DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a
    mid-level shortwave trough over AL/GA and the FL Panhandle pivoting
    northeast through the base of a larger-scale trough. A pre-frontal
    band of showers/thunderstorms extends from 175 mi west-southwest of
    Sarasota northeastward to 20 mi west-northwest of Ocala as of 745am
    EST. Surface observations along the west coast ahead of the storm
    activity indicate dewpoints generally in the 66-69 deg F range.=20
    Forecast soundings show a paucity of buoyancy farther north where
    dewpoints are lower (i.e., mid 60s) but weak buoyancy from Pasco
    County (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE; supported by the 12 UTC Tampa raob with
    100 J/kg MLCAPE) southward to Charlotte Harbor (250-500 J/kg
    MLCAPE). The KTBW VAD shows around 550 m2/s2 0-1km SRH when
    inputting observed storm motion. Given the low CAPE/high shear
    setup, it seems plausible some risk for localized damaging gusts
    and/or a brief tornado will overspread the beaches and perhaps a row
    of counties inland during the morning hours. This thunderstorm
    threat will shift southward along the coast during the morning with
    the areas from Tampa Bay and areas north likely having a diminished
    threat by mid-late morning and it shifting towards Charlotte Harbor
    towards late morning.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 01/06/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!95lMR6o1J2vCiEZWvSwyObnDlaJSojyp--w7MIp3hT_y6erLRhlTz3FAGZzGh1mKMTSbFEo0W= I1aFQ-tiu_M7HVa_nM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 29168274 29358251 29228223 28508233 27948243 27668236
    26778195 26488198 26438211 26508233 27348282 27988299
    28618280 28928283 29168274=20


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