• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 30 04:51:07 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 300451
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300450=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-300715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2076
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 PM CST Thu Dec 29 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Upper TX Coast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 300450Z - 300715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat and perhaps a brief tornado
    remain possible along the Upper Texas Coast for the next few hours.
    Watch issuance remains unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A few rotating cells have occurred offshore from the
    Upper TX Coast over the past couple of hours, with one recently
    approaching the coast. A gradual increase in the south-southwesterly
    low-level flow has been observed this evening in trends from the
    KHGX VWP. Sufficient low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH around 100-200
    m2/s2, should continue to encourage updraft rotation with any
    low-topped cells that can persist offshore and subsequently approach
    land. The primary limiting factor remains weak instability and
    related poor boundary layer lapse rates. Neutral to weakly stable
    0-1 km lapse rates depicted in RAP forecast sounding at GLS suggest
    convection should tend to weaken as it approaches the coast. Even
    so, a brief waterspout/tornado appears possible along immediate
    coastal portions of the Upper TX Coast over the next few hours. A
    sporadic strong/damaging wind gust may also occur. Due to the
    marginal thermodynamic environment, the severe threat is expected to
    stay rather isolated and near the coast. Accordingly, watch issuance
    remains unlikely.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 12/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-dYcQUufHE-YOFndh71GeKvmmzZpUJsbMOZwo8cnlyae3gZ5D5bQP-29IvGCn0tAxiuOiZX8C= P-iCd07r8aqosJ-0jI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29069540 29419519 29869464 30019420 29969381 29719381
    28979471 28709507 29069540=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Sep 3 18:33:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031833
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031832=20
    UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-032100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2076
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 PM CDT Sun Sep 03 2023

    Areas affected...Central into northeast NV...northwest UT...and far
    southeast ID

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 031832Z - 032100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk will increase from west to east this
    afternoon, with severe gusts and hail possible. A watch is possible
    in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows a swath of convection
    with several embedded/transient deeper cores spreading northward
    across the northern half of NV this afternoon. This activity is
    generally focused near a north/south-oriented surface
    trough/stationary front and within an area of maximized
    DCVA/midlevel ascent (evident in water vapor imagery) preceding a
    substantial midlevel trough over northern CA/OR.

    As the midlevel trough and related height falls gradually spread
    eastward across eastern NV and eventually UT through the afternoon
    and evening, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will spread/expand east-northeastward across the region. Filtered heating and related destabilization of a very moist air mass across the northern half of
    NV, coupled with a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective
    shear), will support a mix of organized clusters/line segments and
    supercell structures. Severe gusts are the primary concern with this
    activity, though instances of severe hail are also possible --
    especially with any sustained supercell structures. With time,
    thunderstorms should increase in both intensity and coverage as they spread/develop east-northeastward into northwest UT this
    afternoon/evening -- in concert with the ejecting midlevel trough.
    Here, less cloud coverage and stronger diurnal heating may
    eventually support a relatively higher severe-wind threat, as storms
    intercept an increasingly mixed boundary layer amid favorable
    deep-layer shear.=20

    A watch is possible for parts of the area in the next couple of
    hours.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 09/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7d4v4Z-mecynkylcawsNOCbNYD2MIdBhMAWRVLnwapcl8fw64TvqavQjBGcX04Jkrw1yh9glv= zAuPO0slszRiLjk_iU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...

    LAT...LON 41581549 41021665 40721713 40441735 40011742 39421731
    38981690 38771628 38901508 39331378 39641285 39971215
    40341161 40831125 41641109 42071124 42471169 42611216
    42541273 42351345 41971461 41581549=20


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