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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 23 15:52:21 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 231552
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231551=20
    NYZ000-232145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0951 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2022

    Areas affected...western New York State

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 231551Z - 232145Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow with lake-enhanced rates of 1-2+ in/hr and
    localized blizzard conditions possible through much of the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of a strong surface low and cold front
    moving across the northeastern US, snow is forecast to increase in
    intensity and persists across portions of western NY State through
    much of this afternoon. Over the last 90 min, snow has increased in
    intensity with below 1/4 mile visibility and heavy snow reported at
    several locations along the eastern shores of lake Erie. As the
    surface low is forecast to drift slowly northeastward, low and
    mid-level winds are expected to become more southwesterly with time,
    aligning more favorably with the lake axis. Significant
    lake-enhancement of ongoing snow is expected within the post-frontal
    arctic airmass. Rates of 1-2 in/hr with localized rates greater than
    2+ in/hr are possible. In addition to the heavy snow, the strong
    fetch of low-level southwesterly flow will be enhanced by strong
    surface pressure gradients along the backside of the surface low.
    Numerous gusts greater than 50 mph have been noted across western NY
    State in the last 2 hours. Localized blizzard conditions are likely
    along the immediate lake shore, where heavy blowing snow and strong
    wind gusts to 50-60 mph will likely persist well into the afternoon.

    ..Lyons.. 12/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bFvEGFFWYe4oOD2vpludurEkSJbKfFQXxu3FfQ65Uy57UlS3e9GHLfrm_l8Fff56dthnlEde= Gal8BOLmPs7kSZDTjo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43397899 43457851 43427796 43387781 43277759 43097778
    42927800 42757828 42607871 42527890 42447912 42387930
    42377938 42457945 42637930 42807911 42937913 43117915
    43397899=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 31 03:20:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 310320
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310320=20
    NDZ000-310515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1020 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

    Areas affected...western ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 310320Z - 310515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts (peak gusts 50-65 mph) will be
    possible for the next few hours across western ND as a thunderstorm
    band moves east.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows an intensifying band of
    thunderstorms near the northeast MT/northwest ND border region and
    another linear cluster in southwest ND immediately ahead of a potent
    mid-level shortwave low/trough. There has been a history of
    ASOS-measured strong to severe gusts in eastern MT in association
    with this convection during the past couple of hours. The recent development/intensification of thunderstorms has coincided with a
    long-lived thunderstorm cluster and its associated outflow reaching
    a more moist airmass located over western ND (lower 60s deg F
    surface dewpoints compared to 40s to lower 50s over eastern MT).=20
    Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates evident on the 00z Glasgow, MT and
    Bismarck, ND raobs (7 to 8 deg C/km) and strong large-scale forcing
    for ascent will continue to promote strong to severe thunderstorm
    activity. The confined spatial and temporal extent of the expected
    threat will preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/31/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7D3xWE_UHHpFbulpkRPyN7H8gede_fOryLHkvmK1k2WfHW22wiNkmxguWTyvLvgwL7FX0FJxC= myMW7m4LeYtNHTxQUI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...

    LAT...LON 48300389 48820398 49050265 48470182 47150142 46540204
    46450317 48300389=20


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