• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Dec 23 04:48:17 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 230448
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230447=20
    WAZ000-ORZ000-231015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2067
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1047 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oregon into western
    Washington

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 230447Z - 231015Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain is expected to increase this evening and
    into Friday morning across northwest Oregon into parts of western
    Washington.

    DISCUSSION...Dry low-level air was present on the observed 00Z
    soundings from SLE and UIL. Surface observations have continued to
    indicate that light precipitation has been reaching the ground in
    northwest Oregon. Due to influx of cold air through the Columbia
    Gorge and some diabatic cooling from precipitation, the low-level
    air cold airmass remains deep enough to support a mix of freezing
    rain and some sleet. A shortwave trough evident on water vapor
    imagery is currently approaching the region. As this occurs, warm
    advection at 850 mb will increase. At the same time, the offshore
    pressure gradient should also weaken towards Friday morning. These
    processes should lead to the low-level cold layer becoming more
    shallow and support primarily freezing rain. Given the cold
    temperatures already present in the region, ice accretion should be
    relatively efficient. Portions of the Willamette Valley, having
    already nearly saturated the low-levels, are more likely to see
    greater accretions than areas to the north.

    ..Wendt.. 12/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ge-sZXzI4rnP-34H3TIhykLoJsX35LH9olx20_GhjdbybzeXfu3jodm9krjDWcmrMRzhH4Ar= eRoxXvfjvwpzciF-3Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

    LAT...LON 44672271 44302292 44082308 44032345 44672354 45472346
    46202343 46702349 47142350 47462306 47422237 46312210
    45552203 45302214 45132234 45102251 44672271=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 30 21:36:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 302136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302136=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-302230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2067
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

    Areas affected...portions of the Carolina coast

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 662...

    Valid 302136Z - 302230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 662 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for mini supercells and an attendant risk for a
    couple of tornadoes will likely continue to move northeast up the
    Carolina coast through the evening. A tornado watch will be
    considered to include portions of the Outer Banks to the northeast
    of the Tornado Watch #662 when the environment becomes more
    favorable for tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...Late afternoon radar imagery from KLTX (Wilmington, NC)
    shows a cluster of quasi-discrete supercells near the northeast SC
    coast/Grand Strand vicinity and adjacent continental shelf waters
    south of Cape Fear. A significant increase in low-level shear has
    been observed at KLTX during the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH (using
    observed storm motion) in excess of 400 m2/s2. With a nearly
    saturated profile and mid 70s surface dewpoints, only weak buoyancy
    is analyzed. However, the strengthening low-level shear profiles
    and enlarging hodographs will continue to be favorable for low-level mesocyclones over the next few hours as the outer bands of Idalia
    continue northeastward up the coast. The area of favorable
    shear/buoyancy will probably overspread portions of the Outer Banks
    later this evening.

    ..Smith/Grams.. 08/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-MAbkjgP9mUBrhX6VGIjdOas2MaIUMOojphbZZ2qBHJ90aOeY-XRn0fq223X6lyJDBmEs1dX= nzfbZAj7GrtM39MIJI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

    LAT...LON 33427996 33767980 35397647 35447595 35287554 34847542
    32957915 33147971 33427996=20


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