ACUS11 KWNS 230408
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230408=20
FLZ000-230645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Areas affected...parts of the western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230408Z - 230645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat may develop over portions of the
Florida Peninsula overnight. A couple brief bouts of hail are
possible, and a strong wind gust cannot be completely ruled out. A
WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection continues to pulse in
intensity across the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the surface
trough per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms persist along
a gradient of marginal instability (500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE per 23Z mesoanalysis) which is colocated with a stationary boundary
delineating a surface-based airmass to the south and marginal
elevated buoyancy north. In addition, TBW VAD profiles show a
gradual increase in low-level flow and hodograph curvature,
suggesting that better shear may be overspreading the FL peninsula
(ahead of an approaching weak mid-level impulse) which may aid in
storm organization. Storms that move ashore and persist may support
an instance of marginally severe hail or a strong wind gust.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse at best
and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UVBHL6M5lhp39JqksInmbYPLDxrIZWSo8ofmRQrXgZfE0S35cfa44D5KRI2HdCcl93zopRZk= dUij1lvkymAPZUiS3Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 27968278 26908165 26078127 25828141 25868167 26318224
26928262 27608286 27968278=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 230413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230413 COR
FLZ000-230645-

Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Areas affected...parts of the western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 230413Z - 230645Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat may develop over portions of the
Florida Peninsula overnight. A couple brief bouts of hail are
possible, and a strong wind gust cannot be completely ruled out. A
WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection continues to pulse in
intensity across the eastern Gulf of Mexico ahead of the surface
trough per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. These storms persist along
a gradient of marginal instability (500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE per 04Z mesoanalysis) which is colocated with a stationary boundary
delineating a surface-based airmass to the south and marginal
elevated buoyancy north. In addition, TBW VAD profiles show a
gradual increase in low-level flow and hodograph curvature,
suggesting that better shear may be overspreading the FL peninsula
(ahead of an approaching weak mid-level impulse) which may aid in
storm organization. Storms that move ashore and persist may support
an instance of marginally severe hail or a strong wind gust.
Nonetheless, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse at best
and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_uWhwRXGJsSAHakXNf4Mit6_Zg4Npi0obOZHtdgku4VMpGZibqC2GMcD78xFNUHe0OdfKpe4= SGFVqaCyTPJkcdxItU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 27968278 26908165 26078127 25828141 25868167 26318224
26928262 27608286 27968278=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 301815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301814=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-302015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Areas affected...coastal plain of South Carolina and adjacent North
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 662...

Valid 301814Z - 302015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 662 continues.

SUMMARY...An increase in showers and thunderstorms with embedded
rotation capable of producing tornadoes still appears possible
across the South Carolina coastal plain through 4-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...The broadening/weakening circulation center of Idalia
is gradually accelerating across and northeast of the Waycross GA
vicinity,and will approach the Savannah GA vicinity through 20-21Z.=20
While a lead convective band has pivoted well ahead of it, across
and east of the Charleston SC area, scattered discrete convective
cells continue to develop in the wake of this band, offshore into
coastal areas near and southwest of Charleston. Clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs have been enlarging along South Carolina
coastal areas in advance of Idalia, where a tropical moist
boundary-layer remains potentially unstable in advance of the
mid-level warm core. And there still appears a window of
opportunity for the environment to become conducive to cells with
strengthening low-level mesocyclones posing increasing potential to
produce tornadoes during the next few hours.

..Kerr.. 08/30/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BiyMGyStvKdCiqi00lqiytY6WHpoAV751A-SukW2jcllxCw9oTS02zUr2PPkrL0L6cLcJFVf= Y_HuVZ0lqZUgr9efnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 33088109 33677977 34147882 33947816 33537810 33197867
32218067 33088109=20


=3D =3D =3D
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