ACUS11 KWNS 221523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221523=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Montana...southwest North Dakota into
central South Dakota

Concerning...Blizzard=20

Valid 221523Z - 221930Z

SUMMARY...Ground blizzard conditions will persist well into the
afternoon hours - especially across open country - from far eastern
Montana into southwest North Dakota and central South Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Latest observations from eastern MT, southwest ND, and
into central SD show sustained wind speeds between 25-30 knots.
These winds are near the top of the wind speed distribution from
latest hi-res ensemble guidance and are forecast to gradually
increase through the afternoon. Although snowfall amounts over the
past 24-48 hours have been minimal (generally in the 1-2 inch
range), significant visibility reductions are noted in surface
observations and regional web cams, suggesting that at least a
portion of the pre-existing snow pack is blowable. Using the current
and forecast temperature/wind speeds, blowing snow model
probabilities suggest that persistent blizzard conditions will
continue well into the afternoon - especially in open country.
Blizzard conditions will likely be more widespread/persistent across
portions of west/northwest SD where frequent wind gusts between
35-45 knots are expected through early afternoon.

..Moore.. 12/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5uUR6z_21b5TX9gC6NPZ_sDd6XxrgtRGGyIQ3lQvIcn2AvVhAWLi1Na86Jxd1P9IQPCZFRNie= U4J0IsG-U6_w4sOZR8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 44130237 44900356 46120502 46780523 47250482 47240380
45209811 44809773 44039777 43359802 43119881 43280023
43610112 44130237=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 292344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292344=20
FLZ000-300215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...Western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 292344Z - 300215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop across the western
Florida Peninsula this evening. Once the tornado threat begins to
develop, a tornado watch will be needed, likely later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Idalia will continue to move
north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening.
The outer bands of Hurricane Idalia will begin to impact the western
coast of Florida in a few hours. As these bands move into the
coastal areas later this evening, strong low-level shear will be
maintained as a low-level speed max brushes the coast. The latest
WSR-88D VWP at Tampa Bay has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500
m2/s2, and RAP forecast soundings increase low-level shear along the
western coast from south to north over the next few hours. This
suggests that discrete cells embedded in the outerbands of Idalia
may develop tornado potential. The threat is forecast to gradually
transition northward to the area southwest of Gainsville, Florida by
late evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 08/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tqX61c2KWxErzY8ujVBbgcDELUXcmEPxSq-D_IbhFSkj2_rgqFeJznz12IALg_NXR7MsBMjm= sLrErF1beUKFQim9Y8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29338228 29528253 29578272 29558293 29478306 29318308
29198306 29008291 28468281 28018293 27588285 26718242
26418192 26758124 28508194 29338228=20


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