ACUS11 KWNS 220548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220548=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-220845-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Areas affected...Southeast NE...northern KS...southwest IA...and far
northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 220548Z - 220845Z

SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow with rates around 1 inch/hour and
reduced visibilities will persist during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data depicts a band of moderate to
heavy snow (around 1 inch/hour) spreading east-southeastward across
parts of south-central NE behind a southward-advancing cold front.
This activity should continue to be supported by broad upper-level
divergence in the exit region of a mid/upper-level jet, along with
strong frontogenetic forcing in the 925-850-mb layer. Over the next
few hours, this band should continue spreading slowly
east-southeastward across southeast NE into far northern KS and
parts of southwest IA/northwest MO. In addition to heavy snowfall
rates of 1 inch/hour, strong/gusty northerly surface winds will
favor reduced visibilities -- even in areas of light to moderate
snow.

..Weinman.. 12/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-f0IuFDoPTxCpHgc45MLRdKxoCvz966NFf0Az7eL7Etw2xYYX9J2WIEO2RF0h6A5L8yLCHTk4= Fl3D1rI6s4WgFgPAjw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 41669501 41369414 40799419 40239509 39799671 39549827
39669926 39999959 40509932 40909870 41229753 41599601
41669501=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 291827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291827=20
FLZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...southwestern through west central Florida coastal
areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291827Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for an isolated, brief tornado may not be
completely negligible in the near term, but still appears generally
low, and may not increase appreciably until at least this evening
closer to the Fort Myers into Tampa Bay vicinity.

DISCUSSION...After migrating north-northwestward for at least a
period late this morning, the motion of Idalia has trended a bit
more to the north across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is
200+ miles offshore of southwestern through west central Florida
coastal areas, which have been increasingly impacted by the far
outer eastern convective bands.

The arrival of the lead convective band, and some preceding discrete
cells, appears to have coincided with some strengthening of
south-southeasterly flow to 30-40+ in the 850-700 mb layer.=20
However, based on NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, and VWP
data, speed shear dominates the low-level hodograph, with weak
turning with height limited to a shallow near-surface layer. These
type of hodographs may not change appreciably until near/after
00-02Z this evening, near the Fort Myers into Tampa Bay vicinity,
where/when forecast soundings indicate a period of some increase in
turning with height and increasing speed in the lower to mid-levels
(and enlarging clockwise curved hodographs), with the continued
northward progression and closer approach of the circulation center
to the coast.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HJph_HXWgKayJfYAfkwZ7Weo80bJqJcPfr5cV19-qku_F2oZY4g46hd2ZsDQYDReDCUo6r4-= rMmGUuxww0RFgIEopo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 28048273 27468228 26768189 26008147 25728167 25958194
26488220 26968255 27398274 28048273=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 291852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291852=20
FLZ000-292145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Areas affected...southwestern through west central Florida coastal
areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291852Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for an isolated, brief tornado may not be
completely negligible in the near term, but still appears generally
low, and may not increase appreciably until at least this evening
closer to the Fort Myers into Tampa Bay vicinity.

DISCUSSION...After migrating north-northwestward for at least a
period late this morning, the motion of Idalia has trended a bit
more to the north across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. This is
200+ miles offshore of southwestern through west central Florida
coastal areas, which have been increasingly impacted by the far
outer eastern convective bands.

The arrival of the lead convective band, and some preceding discrete
cells, appears to have coincided with some strengthening of
south-southeasterly flow to 30-40+ in the 850-700 mb layer.=20
However, based on NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, and VWP
data, speed shear dominates the low-level hodograph, with weak
turning with height limited to a shallow near-surface layer. These
type of hodographs may not change appreciably until near/after
00-02Z this evening, near the Fort Myers into Tampa Bay vicinity,
where/when forecast soundings indicate a period of some increase in
turning with height and increasing speed in the lower to mid-levels
(and enlarging clockwise curved hodographs), with the continued
northward progression and closer approach of the circulation center
to the coast.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dkT0fYnUWZfvI3Kni0vMmCnWB8AFJnvC4Dt_OUqC40kbI5gDxuYHhwp0uKrb6pR7YfD9snc3= zMqv2dh0YxXce_rawI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 28048273 27468228 26768189 26008147 25728167 25958194
26488220 26968255 27398274 28048273=20


=3D =3D =3D
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