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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2057

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 22 01:02:12 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 220102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220101=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-220500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2057
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0701 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

    Areas affected...Southern SD...parts of NE... far southeast WY...and
    northeast CO

    Concerning...Blizzard=20

    Valid 220101Z - 220500Z

    SUMMARY...Reduced visibilities in blowing snow and localized
    ground-blizzard conditions are possible across parts of the northern
    and central Plains into the overnight hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations show 25-35 mph sustained
    northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts
    of the northern and central Plains -- behind a strong
    southward-advancing cold front. These strong/gusty surface winds,
    coupled with very cold surface temperatures (-05 to -15 F), are
    yielding locally favorable conditions for reduced visibilities in
    blowing snow -- despite only light to moderate ongoing snow over the
    area. Visibilities of 1/2 to 1/4 mile are possible into the
    overnight hours -- especially over areas that continue to experience
    at least light to moderate snow showers amid the strong/gusty winds.

    ..Weinman.. 12/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Mprw66YBd29pVe-1524Xc464oleVr3icMguqBosK0LTZtjUwGfYE-QVyyL1-3BKZD24qL9C4= iOzSRPruPWIyDxsn58$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
    CYS...

    LAT...LON 42669734 42139729 41779768 41349843 40849956 40460103
    40160196 40140323 40270383 40650449 41080493 41530487
    42170451 42750357 43170228 43470048 43519860 43259770
    42669734=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Aug 27 20:46:30 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 272046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272045=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-272245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2057
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern MS and LA into far east TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272045Z - 272245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with isolated downburst winds are
    possible this afternoon/early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley and central Gulf
    Coast, afternoon thunderstorms were observed developing along a
    frontal boundary/remnant outflow. Strong diurnal heating has eroded
    inhibition with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE supporting occasional
    stronger updrafts. Deep-layer vertical shear across much of the
    region is exceedingly weak at generally less than 10-15 kt. This
    will support multi-cellular, pulse convection as the primary storm
    mode. Weak surface flow is also not expected to support much cold
    pool propagation and storm conglomeration seems unlikely. Thus, the
    primary severe risk will be tied to individual pulse downdrafts as
    storms collapse. Greater than 1000 J/kg of DCAPE and steep low-level
    lapse rates from very warm temperatures may support stronger outflow
    winds with sporadic damaging gusts. With little in the way of storm organization or longevity expected, a WW appears very unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7awjHzfamdoqMEimM2GgQbPPKSJaL4cRyvTrZk3wM2bPHH6FM0zkqUH8RmwO0bMD7hZrpHU6K= xgmVERnw8v6yxrbSsE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 30928898 31268945 31629039 31919184 32109304 32259432
    32229507 31889558 31469563 31109535 30429450 30209361
    29989193 29839020 30248937 30418909 30928898=20


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