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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2056

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 21 21:16:08 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 212116
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212115=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-220015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2056
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

    Areas affected...southern Wyoming...southwest South Dakota...western Nebraska...and northern Colorado

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 212115Z - 220015Z

    SUMMARY...Snow squalls will persist into the evening across portions
    of the central Rockies and central High Plains.

    DISCUSSION...A very strong arctic front continues to move south
    across the central High Plains with temperature gradients of 40-50F
    along the front. Several bands of snow have developed near the
    vicinity of this front with moderate to heavy snow being observed.
    In addition, winds are very strong with 30-40 knot winds both north
    and south of the front with observed gusts in excess of 50 knots.=20

    These winds, combined with multiple bands of snow have led to snow
    squall conditions across much of Wyoming and southwest South Dakota
    this afternoon. These conditions continue to shift south with the
    surface front. Observed visibility restrictions have been greatest
    north of the front, likely due to drier snow amid temperatures in
    the -10 to -20F range and 30+ kt sustained winds. In fact, blizzard
    conditions have been observed at 8 ASOS/AWOS sites across Wyoming,
    South Dakota, and Nebraska in the past 2 hours. Expect similar
    conditions to spread into northern Colorado this evening.

    ..Bentley.. 12/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9_l0qoZ3zrJrzPbSsCt6DwR7oerSy8mgMFQufC79j9NNZ4L8jbp_oAZcIqHv0oZTH9FSoscn6= gCVaFxSVjquzCGCNOM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

    LAT...LON 39940552 40920819 41661003 41721084 41731082 41991101
    43050985 43730312 42900024 40820012 39990086 39960552
    39940552=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 26 20:33:12 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262033
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262032=20
    IDZ000-ORZ000-262230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2056
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0332 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Oregon and south central Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262032Z - 262230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated high-based strong to severe storms are possible
    this afternoon and evening. Damaging gusts and small hail are
    possible with the strongest storms. A WW is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Across the northern Intermountain west, broad southerly
    flow ahead of a mid-level trough was transporting monsoon moisture
    northward into portions of eastern OR and southern ID. At the nose
    of this surge, visible imagery showed new thunderstorm development
    ongoing across parts of far northern NV/UT into southern ID. Clear
    skies have allowed for strong diurnal heating and destabilization
    with MUCAPE of 1000-15000 J/kg observed via SPC mesoanalysis. As
    remaining inhibition is removed ahead of the northward lifting
    trough, thunderstorms should continue to develop and mature through
    the afternoon. Vertical shear of 30-35 kt should support some storm organization/longevity into organized multicells and perhaps
    transient supercell structures. Likely high based with LCLs near or
    exceeding 2500 m, the primary risk will be damaging outflow gusts
    from the more persistent storms. However, some small accumulating
    hail may also be possible given relatively steep mid-level lapse
    rates and the presence of a few longer-lived, and stronger updrafts.


    The primary uncertainty with regard to the severe threat this
    afternoon/evening is the coverage of severe storms. While a few
    stronger updrafts are likely to evolve, broader synoptic forcing for
    ascent is still relatively modest. This suggests a generally more
    isolated threat related to individual storm evolution through much
    of the day. Given this uncertainty, a new WW appears unlikely, but
    convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9NX3OMz_E60Nglr0TelSib9OEpIm8nEI49t-6GZgaOlEXjrdUzGUSvPtrvnjFhVGvCGAN9jH1= U4SOLSW5mvBG5qTFWU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT...

    LAT...LON 44541421 43601328 43111328 42791353 42581434 42551518
    42791597 43481753 43911823 44211862 44801846 45041784
    45041672 44941587 44541421=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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