• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2053

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 21 16:05:10 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 211605
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211604=20
    WYZ000-211800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2053
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central and northwest Wyoming

    Concerning...Snow Squall=20

    Valid 211604Z - 211800Z

    SUMMARY...Snow squalls are ongoing across northwest Wyoming and are
    expected to persist as the front moves south through the day.

    DISCUSSION...Several west-east oriented snow bands have developed in
    the vicinity of a surface front across northwest Wyoming. The snow
    bands south of the surface front are developing amid strong
    low-level convergence and weak instability (50-100 J/kg MLCAPE per
    SPC mesoanalysis). Bands north of the front are developing amid more
    elevated instability and frontogenetical forcing. Nonetheless, these
    bands are expected to persist through the day as the front drifts
    southward.=20

    While winds of 20-25 mph and moderate to heavy snow are leading to
    some visibility restrictions south of the front, the greater
    visibility restrictions are being observed north of the front.
    Expect this trend to continue as temperatures plummet to -10 to -20F
    and northerly winds develop amid falling snow. This arctic airmass
    and drier snow should support greater visibility restriction.

    ..Bentley.. 12/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6XIi0OQRBeh9Vc8I29glHVDWBGBqErOpzMYagV8uARkqDVKGm_Aalb7GqoXQZswHQoDDGGrtP= j-cHXYE8et3tBoQffQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 41781012 42011098 43521096 44330994 44720865 44920676
    44370640 43460553 42340579 41880779 41781012=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Aug 26 05:54:37 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260554
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260553=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-260830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2053
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

    Areas affected...southeastern Illinois...far southern Indiana...and
    into adjacent portions of Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 260553Z - 260830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Ongoing storms within an MCS will continue spreading
    southeastward, with occasional/local potential for marginal
    hail/wind. However, a gradual downward trend in convective
    intensity is expected, likely mitigating any consideration for new
    WW issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing MCS moving
    southeastward across southern Indiana, and parts of adjacent
    southeastern Illinois, at this time. While earlier severe weather
    was associated with this convection, risk has diminished -- and
    should continue to do so given a much more stable downstream airmass
    into central Kentucky per RAP-based objective analysis.

    The greatest risk for continuation of vigorous convection, and possible/occasional/local severe-weather occurrences, will be along
    the western flank of this convection, across southeastern Illinois, southwestern Indiana, and later into parts of western Kentucky,
    along/within the gradient of instability to the southwest of the
    ongoing storms. While this local risk may continue for several
    hours, magnitude of the expected risk argues against any need for
    future WW consideration.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6T3_OHbBVUUfWOQ2VqN6dC2XDD0xEFDvFGdbaowYSxxTLZVPidEeUxh6YIx7ICfp0282c3GsA= 5o_6ctCcnwniyXazF8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 39088604 38908527 38038543 37458614 37188770 38098871
    39028831 39068805 38468701 39088604=20


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