• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2046

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 15 16:24:56 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 151624
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151624=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-152030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2046
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1024 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Pennsylvania...southern New
    York...and far northwest New Jersey

    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

    Valid 151624Z - 152030Z

    SUMMARY...Snow, sleet, and freezing rain will transition to mostly
    snow this afternoon across portions of the central Appalachians.

    DISCUSSION...Freezing rain has been observed for much of the morning
    across eastern Pennsylvania and vicinity. In this region, a large
    warm conveyor belt, associated with a large upper low across the
    Midwest has overspread cold air damming east of the Appalachians.
    However, temperatures aloft are not that warm across the region with
    RAP forecast soundings showing a warm nose around 1 to 2 C across
    eastern Pennsylvania. Therefore, the entire profile should drop
    below freezing in the next several hours as temperatures cool aloft
    and a surface low currently over South Carolina deepens and moves up
    the coast.=20

    Moderate, to locally heavy snow is expected once this occurs with
    snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour.

    ..Bentley.. 12/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pbT4DlFnvMVXHrCYB9kRQ1XMe1e3fK94BXIDhELXCKgWNgp18tKtNg5MAZUCpTxB0Ki1k-Aj= jlQfTt15OJP25WLXkY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 41917879 42417816 42707706 42537604 41617470 41127434
    40647525 40067605 40037660 40147708 40437744 41027814
    41917879=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 25 18:33:04 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 251832
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251832=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-252030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2046
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2023

    Areas affected...northern Wisconsin...western half of the Upper
    Peninsula of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251832Z - 252030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail (diameters 1 to 1.5 inches) and
    damaging gusts (50-65 mph) are possible with the stronger storms
    this afternoon. The isolated coverage of expected severe
    thunderstorm activity will preclude the need for a small severe
    thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of storms from
    far northern WI east into the western part of the U.P. of MI ahead
    of a mid-level shortwave trough. Sunny skies continue to promote
    heating downstream of the ongoing convection, and temperatures are
    warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s deg F.=20=20

    Objective analysis indicates around 500 J/kg MLCAPE over northern WI
    and adjacent MI. As the boundary layer continues to warm and
    destabilize through mid afternoon, MLCAPE is forecast to range from
    500-1000 J/kg over the region. Effective shear magnitudes 40-45 kt
    will act to organize updrafts. The more intense updrafts will be
    capable of an isolated severe threat. A couple of weak supercells
    and multicells are possible with the severe threat associated solely
    with these storm modes.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 08/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9ElBKdL7SCbA42mE5O5gdRCDp8w_KFMS3Dd5Ffv-woLHKbAdTRh8WN9-n-KAkM4N0j6dmSaVY= -7kllXpDfGTDhG-PrM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...

    LAT...LON 46659114 46818976 46578747 46278686 45898675 45648701
    45518740 45979120 46159151 46389151 46659114=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)