• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2041

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Dec 15 05:12:22 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 150512
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150511=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-151115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2041
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1111 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northwestern Virginia and Maryland into
    eastern West Virginia and southern Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 150511Z - 151115Z

    SUMMARY...Freezing rain will increase in intensity overnight across
    portions of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Rates of 0.1 to 0.2 inches per
    hour.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0500 UTC, surface observations within the Blue
    Ridge mountains of WV and VA were showing surface temperatures
    decreasing to near or below freezing. Likely in response to dynamic
    cooling from moderate to heavy stratiform precipitation moving
    overhead, temperatures should continue to fall below freezing within
    higher valleys overnight. Driven primarily by mid-level warm
    advection ahead of an advancing shortwave trough over the Midwest, precipitation should also continue to intensify above the cooling
    surface temperatures. Area RAP soundings show a prominent elevated
    1-3 C warm nose extending northward into western MD and southern PA
    with the warm advection band. Periods of moderate freezing rain
    appear likely with rates of 0.1 to 0.2 in/hr possible. The highest
    confidence in freezing rain will be confined to the higher valleys
    of northwestern MD/VA, eastern WV and southern PA through early this
    morning. Some sleet and snow may also mix in later this morning
    before temperatures begin to warm.

    ..Lyons.. 12/15/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Hgf3x-oAylFeXambJjczF5hJHlnPVAdvk0lbqcQzMvOKGfqCeRRG4a41nrG_ODGdHm--vWtq= TaVpBq2-17s0ivDkHs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 38287988 38897960 39587938 40577893 40787851 40677792
    40507762 40237757 39597798 38957827 38107872 37847907
    37927954 38287988=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Aug 25 00:09:30 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 250009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250008=20
    MIZ000-250145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2041
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0708 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656...

    Valid 250008Z - 250145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 656
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW656.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has increased along the warm
    front across the Michigan Peninsula and more diffuse front across
    Lake Michigan. Given the presence of frontal forcing as the main
    mechanism, it is likely that a mixed storm mode of multi-cell and
    supercells will cluster and attempt upscale growth along outflow as
    they advance southward. Before transition to upscale growth, any
    cells that can remain semi-discrete will pose a risk of large hail
    and damaging wind. Deep layer shear and appreciable instability
    across the lower Michigan Peninsula is supportive of some initial
    tornado risk, with deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and curved
    hodographs. The VAD profile from KGRR has observed 0-1km storm
    relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. With upscale growth, the main
    threats will likely shift to damaging winds and hail. Though,
    embedded mesovorticies may continue within the line.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-l3kajxuYVqvUK9VnegEBahIOTbieyBJLqW9e26vgcMVM8lBTK7bXGCNqnS3s9IpQkSNWdsWo= taS0DBdEZO929OXYhg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43138693 43308667 43528626 43708595 43898517 43928454
    43928390 43888333 43768293 43578270 43338267 42998281
    42748295 42508311 42258330 41988370 41818412 41798465
    41778510 41768559 41808622 41848664 42078694 42288712
    42628716 42768713 43138693=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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