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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2035

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 23:02:17 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 142302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142301=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-150030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2035
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi into southwestern into central
    Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

    Valid 142301Z - 150030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

    SUMMARY...Several supercell thunderstorms will continue
    northeastward into this evening with a risk for damaging gusts and a
    few tornadoes. Certainty in the severe risk decreases with northern
    and eastern extent.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2255 UTC, regional radar and surface analysis
    showed several supercell thunderstorms ongoing across portions of
    southeastern MS and southwestern AL. Located primarily along a
    prefrontal confluence band, these storms are expected to expand
    northeastward into southwestern and south-central AL over the next
    couple of hours. While buoyancy decreases with northward extent
    within moderate stratiform precipitation, sufficient instability
    likely exists to support strong updrafts into south-central AL. Near
    the warm front, strong low-level shear (ESRH 400-500 m2/s2) evident
    on the BMX VAD/VWP will also continue to support strong low-level
    mesocyclones. Increasingly linear storm modes and interactions do
    suggest the severe threat is less certain with northern and eastern
    extent, but the risk for strong wind gusts and tornadoes will likely
    remain with the more sustained supercells.

    New and more shallow convection has also been noted within the free
    warm sector over southern AL in the last couple of hours. Weak
    rotation has been observed suggesting additional warm-sector
    supercell development is possible over the next few hours. Similarly
    strong low-level shear would support a tornado risk should these
    updrafts become more sustained. However, increasing storm
    interactions cast uncertainty on the severe threat as is depicted on
    the most recent HRRR runs. Regardless, strong low-level wind fields
    and adequate CAPE (~1000 J/kg) should support a risk for a few
    tornadoes should sustained supercells develop.

    ..Lyons/Guyer.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ueyR2HNlGWK3niHBstfGA1duQQBXJcCfRFnWPrTFwym-0i7D0hkSi_7cT0ps9D0MQIztG91V= fXXTpsnjh4XBZZQHP8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 32068691 31808702 31588715 31248754 30808803 30628852
    30528878 30508920 30738932 31848861 32818773 32918743
    32828713 32768702 32708698 32478693 32068691=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 24 17:09:29 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 241709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241708=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-241945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2035
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

    Areas affected...Middle/Eastern TN...Western NC...Southwestern VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241708Z - 241945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging gusts
    are possible from Middle TN into western NC and southwestern VA this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis and satellite imagery shows a southward/southeastward progressing outflow boundary from north
    Middle TN eastward into northwest NC and then back northeastward
    across western VA. Cumulus continues to increase in the vicinity of
    this outflow as the downstream airmass heats and destabilizes. A
    remnant MCV is also apparent in visible imagery over WV. Combination
    of these features with additional heating/destabilization is
    expected to result in thunderstorm development from middle TN
    northeastward into southwest/western VA this afternoon.=20

    Upper 80s/low 90s surface temperatures combined with upper 60s/low
    70s dewpoints will help foster moderate to strong buoyancy, with
    afternoon MLCAPE likely reaching 2500 J/kg from middle TN into
    northern GA. Slightly lower buoyancy closer to 1000-1500 J/kg is
    anticipated farther north and east into western NC and
    southwest/western VA. In contrast to this strong buoyancy, vertical
    shear will be weak, with effective bulk shear likely staying below
    20 kt. This lack of stronger shear will limit storm organization,
    with a multicell mode anticipated. Even so, a few water-loaded
    downdrafts capable of damaging gusts are possible across the region
    this afternoon.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!903y26CWflKufiz6TwPawCp2wmww7ExBWZNLdwQpLp7KA9EuSPcbD3UCzP4jrTLdMYhh2MQnV= rL8klEmocLtOYRBFuE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

    LAT...LON 36208539 36778313 37278138 37608003 37477958 36817991
    35568151 35048311 34878398 34908500 35578595 36208539=20


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