ACUS11 KWNS 142053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142053=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-142230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southeast Mississippi...and
portions of southwest Alabama.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 588...

Valid 142053Z - 142230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 588 continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous strong supercells continue this afternoon with a
threat for strong tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells developed this afternoon with only
a few confirmed tornadoes. However, these storms have congealed into
a line of 5-6 dominant supercells extending from Clarke County,
Mississippi to southwest of New Orleans. This storm evolution is
seemingly more favorable for low-level updraft circulations as TDSs
have recently been observed in Clarke County, Mississippi and south
of Lake Pontchartrain from similar strength rotational velocity as
the numerous supercells which lacked a clear TDS in the prior 1 to 2
hours. Therefore, as heating reaches its diurnal maximum, low-level
flow continues to strengthen in association with the deepening
meso-low, and the low-level jet strengthens to 60+ knots per LIX
VWP, storms may be entering the period of greatest tornado
potential.=20

The most favorable environment is currently near New Orleans where
STP values of 4 to 5 exist with a couple supercells approaching from
the Southwest. Therefore, portions of southeast Louisiana, including
the New Orleans metro area may have the greatest chance for strong
tornadoes over the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QjQ8x-rV-XYPNaVQdTDlL4hMNbBW3iszGzPrBE4NULKlL16KmqegoVsARCq41vKfMtMmjKcJ= 8PxBzvm_qxyQSZZsj4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29118988 28989083 29099139 29159154 30099073 31128954
32018888 32498837 32598785 32418758 31958765 31438794
30988831 29938884 29358921 29118988=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 240429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240428=20
MIZ000-240630-

Mesoscale Discussion 2033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Areas affected...Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 240428Z - 240630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase across central and
southeast lower Michigan over the next several hours. Some risk for
hail and gusty winds may necessitate the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Remnants of a weak short-wave trough have topped the
central US ridge and are now digging southeast across northwest
ON/northern Lake Superior. This feature appears to be aiding a
westerly LLJ across southern WI into southern lower MI where 850mb
flow is now on the order of 25-35kt. While the short wave will prove
negligible in lowering heights across this region, sustained
low-level warm advection is expected to aid strong, to potentially
severe thunderstorms along the eastern edge of a strong cap. Plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread this region
and latest satellite imagery depicts deepening updrafts over
southern Clare/northern Isabella County region. Scattered
thunderstorms should develop over the next 1-2 hours and likely grow
upscale as they spread southeast into the northwestern flank of the
OH Valley MCS. This activity may produce some hail and wind. Will
monitor for a potential severe thunderstorm watch but the primary
risk may continue to be heavy rain as convection grows upscale.

..Darrow/Hart.. 08/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vMkxI4PnWvPFtVDzDkA8NXFfx14eCGIfpdRoh8kpxl-zm5HtyIKn9uWFCAVryySQ5D_DZyfZ= Rg802i2wCo9iTkEiBE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 41738349 43838539 44108411 42278232 41738349=20


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