• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2028

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 10:07:10 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 141007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141006=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-141500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2028
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0406 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

    Areas affected...northeast MN and extreme northwest WI

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 141006Z - 141500Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow will spread north into northeast MN
    and far northwest WI through the early morning hours. Snowfall rates
    near 1 inch per hour are expected.

    DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow will lift northward
    from central MN into northeast MN and extreme northwest WI over the
    next few hours. This area of snow is developing along an area of
    increasing 700 mb frontogenesis and midlevel warm advection as a
    midlevel low over eastern NE pivots northeast. Strong ascent through
    a deep saturated profile and a dendritic growth layer around 2500
    feet deep will result in efficient snowfall rates around 1 inch per
    hour. Some localized, brief rates near 2 inches an hour will be
    possible within mesoscale bands through the early morning hours.

    ..Leitman.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wVMGfQrgBM3WB4m05CGCF139b0SQesMrktrh4sJd-Kp238d7xucbw12EIUnRK0d3igtg5gcC= 4l2OJpMQ-Jmktyx4LY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46129174 45689238 45609299 45589365 45839443 46129477
    46319486 46519485 46889488 47719436 48129366 48219304
    48129232 47889156 47679119 47419110 46449163 46129174=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 23 19:07:23 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 231907
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231906=20
    WVZ000-OHZ000-232100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2028
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231906Z - 232100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving into northern Ohio will pose a risk
    for damaging winds and perhaps large hail through the afternoon
    hours. Watch issuance is not expected due to low confidence in the
    longevity and magnitude of this threat.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms of initially modest
    intensity migrating southward out of southeast MI and into northern
    OH have shown an intensifying trend in IR imagery with occasional
    bursts of higher VIL and vertically integrated ice also noted. Being
    displaced to the east of a surface warm front, this activity is
    elevated and propagating to the south/southeast along a diffuse
    MUCAPE gradient draped southwestward to the OH River. Recent surface observations support the idea of elevated convection with observed
    wind gusts associated with the cell over northeast OH measuring in
    the 35-50 mph range thus far despite radar velocity measurements of
    60+ mph within the lowest 3 km. However, this cell, as well as
    upstream cells moving over Lake Eerie, are displaying reflectivity
    and velocity characteristics of a gravity wave breaking event
    capable of mixing stronger winds to the surface. While the
    propensity for severe winds and the longevity of these cells is
    uncertain (cell motions are largely towards an MUCAPE minimum), the
    threat for damaging gusts, and perhaps large hail, should continue
    for the next couple of hours.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 08/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gR7oNjYTc8YG0t7ZCf2WVWG1wgqV7m1FgQkKlpRwiGWmulXtVjV8vXtzN0rDNpaJXzHllJPp= iaaLFgorgG3r0-uN1U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

    LAT...LON 41488291 41368247 41538180 41768124 40988083 40288064
    39498096 39218159 39218209 39518265 39868293 41488291=20


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