ACUS11 KWNS 140814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140813=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-141015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

Areas affected...central and southern MS into portions of southern
LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 585...586...

Valid 140813Z - 141015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 585, 586 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of tornadoes and sporadic strong gusts remain
possible across WW 585 and 586. The greatest relative threat into
early morning will exist across southern MS into southwest LA.

DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is analyzed from near
Holmes/Attala counties in MS southeastward toward the Mobile Bay
vicinity as of 08z. This warm front is not expected to move much
over the next several hours, which will confine the better
warm-sector airmass across southern MS into southern LA through
early morning. An ongoing line of convection with bowing segments
and embedded supercells continues to very slowly shift eastward with
some transition toward training convection and heavy rain over the
past couple of hours. Semi-discrete cells appear most likely across
parts of southern LA into far southern MS where low-level confluence
is most apparent. Given favorable low-level shear and modest
instability, rotating cells, both ahead of the line and embedded
within the line, will continue to pose a risk for a couple of
tornadoes and sporadic strong gusts into early morning across WW 585
and 586. A new watch or local extension in time may be needed across
parts of southwest LA as WW 585 is set to expire at 10z, and some
threat may persist beyond watch expiration time.

..Leitman.. 12/14/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rSQ8giUq3xxgrSDYLduJyVi2L-hXZQSZHb_4whE3BNIR484fzya4OLiaaarBYmdzQk9ghMyk= Exp6p0aKnZKxUiKo9s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30549078 30139196 29839293 29809330 29879359 30059363
30379356 30809293 31309236 33748970 33818917 33638868
33308859 32638863 32048876 31758894 31238951 30549078=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 231015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231014=20
MIZ000-231215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

Areas affected...Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231014Z - 231215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to continue increasing in coverage
across Lower Michigan over the next couple of hours, but any severe
risk should remain limited/isolated, and mainly in the form of
marginal hail.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a steady increase in convective
coverage over the past hour or so across northern lower Michigan, in
line with expectations and with CAM guidance. The convection is
evolving within an environment featuring 500 J/kg (east) to 1500
J/kg (west) elevated CAPE based at roughly 850mb, atop a cool/stable
boundary layer. Warm advection -- associated with a westerly
low-level jet -- is providing ascent, supporting the observed
development.

While deep-layer shear -- comprised of weakly veering/increasing
flow with height through the cloud-bearing layer -- is plenty
sufficient for organized convection, severe risk should remain
limited at best. Hail, emanating from a couple of the strongest
storms, remains the most likely risk, with maximum hail size
expected to remain in the 1" to 1 1/2" range. Meanwhile, though
gusty winds can also be expected, the degree of stability within the
roughly 1.5km deep sub-cloud layer (where temperatures are in the
lower to mid 60s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s), should
limit potential for wind gusts in excess of severe levels reaching
the surface.

..Goss/Guyer.. 08/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92chPjKuBTVddAWCIzber_LDDCz8kkXpkVVJQNXkVAneVtsq_TM6982PpJPezU6sstlXvF0iG= VJWnFebXgB_Fvp95fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44828581 45268512 44098405 43188292 42638300 42558486
42908595 44428574 44828581=20


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