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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2026

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 06:02:41 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 140602
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140602=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-141100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2026
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1202 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

    Areas affected...portions of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan

    Concerning...Freezing rain=20

    Valid 140602Z - 141100Z

    SUMMARY...Periods of light to moderate freezing rain and mixed
    precipitation will likely continue overnight with total ice
    accumulation rates of 0.05 in/hr A transition to snow may occur
    later overnight.

    DISCUSSION...To the east of a deep surface and upper-level cyclone
    over the central and northern Plains, a broad area of wintry
    precipitation was ongoing across portions of the upper Midwest.
    Additional stratiform precipitation should develop and expand
    northward with strong mid-level warm advection occurring. Mid-level
    warming should continue overnight as the cyclones warm conveyor
    shifts northward into WI and MN. A prominent 1-2C warm nose will
    favor freezing rain and mixed precipitation types. Some hi-res
    models show heavier shower/weak convective elements may develop and
    support locally heavier ice accumulations as the maximum in dynamic
    lift and any weak slantwise/upright instability are released. Total
    ice accumulations of 0.05 to 0.1 in/hr inches are possible over the
    next several hours. A transition to mixed p-type or snow will be
    possible after 10z as cooler air shifts eastward.

    ..Lyons.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bTj3X-K7K88GctahCwBIm5u2aSSsQWmvXapqpZcZ8NWUJAZgkVSwGjeU660yC9fzF55dsdDO= YLWlHYY_wje4uVyN4w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 46548938 46398868 46228847 46008843 45608849 45138865
    44888919 44948936 45029009 45089058 45369138 46129237
    46839273 47099225 46529038 46548938=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Aug 23 06:29:50 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 230629
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230629=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-230830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2026
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2023

    Areas affected...far east-central Montana and into west/central and northwestern North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 230629Z - 230830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Local/isolated severe potential may persist another 1 to 2
    hours, before diminishing. WW issuance is expected to remain
    unnecessary due to limited areal and temporal nature of the threat.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of strong storms
    moving quickly northeastward in the vicinity of the east-central Montana/west-central North Dakota border area at this time. A
    report of a 60 MPH wind gust was received roughly an hour ago from
    Dawson County Montana, and WDSS data has show occasional indications
    of hail around .75" in diameter.

    Based on output from multiple CAMs, this convection should weaken
    markedly over the next 1 to 2 hours, with any severe risk likewise
    diminishing. With that said, the convection is more vigorous, and
    more widespread, than CAM output would suggest, which calls this
    conclusion into question a bit. Further, with an axis of 1000 to
    1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE present per RAP-based objective analysis
    across west-central and northwestern North Dakota, such rapid demise
    of convection as suggested by the CAMs may be just a bit aggressive.

    With that said, a cooling/neutral to slightly stable boundary layer
    with northeastward extent across northwestern North Dakota appears
    likely to limit stronger wind-gust potential to roughly the next
    hour or so as storms move through the axis of greatest low-level moisture/instability. This, combined with a lack of any updrafts
    intense enough to produce hail in excess of 1" in diameter thus far
    despite convection moving through the most favorable thermodynamic
    environment at this time, suggests that severe potential will remain
    limited, and likely to last no more than another 1 to 2 hours.

    ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rzwMJBsee-JLI8WUfFAYva5VpJMa2H58tdN5Odac4LAVSP_oae-49uRw814dTfvXsqSmf-hI= P5AyiUQQmdcoL7saIc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46770425 47330476 48150496 48520396 48470294 47740231
    47000230 46900278 46770425=20


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