• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2025

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 05:06:41 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 140506
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140505=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-140700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2025
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1105 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

    Areas affected...Mississippi...Far Northeast Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 584...

    Valid 140505Z - 140700Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 584 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue during the
    overnight period across parts of western and central Mississippi.
    Wind damage, tornadoes and hail will be possible with the more
    intense storms. Weather watch issuance may be needed to the east of
    WW 584.

    DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Jackson,
    Mississippi shows an organized line of storms from northeast
    Louisiana into northwest Mississippi with more discrete cells ahead
    of the line. This large area of convection is located along an axis
    of instability with MLCAPE generally in the 500 to 1500 J/kg range.
    In addition, 0-6 km shear along this corridor is in the 50 to 60
    knot range according to RAP analysis. This shear environment will
    continue support supercell development overnight. The more intense
    cells that remain discrete will likely have tornado potential. A
    tornado and wind-damage threat will also exist with the more
    organized line segments, with the tornado threat mostly confined to
    areas where the surface dewpoint is at 63 F or greater. At this
    time, persistent supercells are ongoing within the center of WW 584.
    The track of these storms will determine if a new watch needs to be
    issued further to the east across parts of central and eastern
    Mississippi.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8uZRS5pGy6ZfIcvntxOqh0cXy6FWHkiQZ3pYYKD4b4h-zNlPS7ULFoVaKUVOE1Pc9CfRCoCuw= S9ZsyH5LuaV1Geo3os$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 33059066 32149124 31429153 30929152 30579116 30599060
    30789015 31318974 32308935 33258886 33888867 34128888
    34228943 34168984 33949021 33059066=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 22 18:41:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221840=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-222045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2025
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

    Areas affected...Utah into southwest Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221840Z - 222045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk of
    strong to severe winds through the late afternoon and early evening
    hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, occasional lightning flashes have
    been observed from a few deepening cumulus towers within a
    differential heating boundary draped from northern AZ into southwest
    WY. This is amid gradual diurnal destabilization with MUCAPE values
    approaching 500 J/kg across the region. Further
    heating/destabilization is expected through the remainder of the
    afternoon with model consensus suggesting MUCAPE upwards of 1000
    J/kg likely by peak heating, despite only modest mid-level lapse
    rates. While synoptic-scale ascent remains limited, orographic lift
    within the differential heating zone should support an increasing
    number of thunderstorms in the coming hours.=20

    Recent VWP observations from KICX and KMTX are sampling 40-50 knot
    winds between 7-8 kft AGL, which should be just above the LCL of
    most parcels emanating from a well-mixed boundary layer. The
    downward mixing of these winds, combined with downdraft
    accelerations related to evaporative cooling, will support the
    potential for strong to severe wind gusts. However, this will likely
    be conditional on storms developing and/or migrating into a deeply
    mixed environment. Latest dewpoint depressions and forecast
    soundings suggest most areas are not yet sufficiently mixed, but
    should become so in the coming hours. Furthermore, effective shear
    over the region near 35-40 knots may support transient supercell characteristics with the strongest cells. Consequently, the
    potential for strong/severe winds should increase through the coming
    hours, but will likely remain fairly limited in coverage.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 08/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5VvDqo9-sEeeOMRQusqHR1UDA7qNH7YaRGV4DQ_C4TVf51h-5cVP19HPPKmpTUG8KTbSAdJBr= ArvycFEfXk9Rxbx08Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

    LAT...LON 36621158 36621207 36961266 37521285 37861278 40491194
    41171169 41861116 42011010 41810937 41480888 41130876
    39220953 37431009 36811067 36621158=20


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