• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2024

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 02:48:37 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 140248
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140248=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-140415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2024
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0848 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Texas into southern...and
    central Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...

    Valid 140248Z - 140415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to remain past the 04z
    expiration of WW583. A replacement tornado watch will be coordinated
    shortly.

    DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, regional radar trends suggest
    convection has strengthened across east TX ad southern/central LA in
    response to increasing deep-layer ascent and the eastward shift of
    the low-level jet axis. Additional convective development appears
    likely owing to an uncapped, moist and highly sheared warm sector
    evident from the 00z LCH sounding and area VAD/VWPs. CAMs suggest
    the highest probability for new development/maturation of supercells
    is on several warm advection confluence bands ahead of the slow
    moving cold front from far southeast TX into central LA. With strong
    shear and sufficient buoyancy in place through much of the night,
    the risk for supercells and a few tornadoes will continue past the
    04z expiration of WW583. A new watch will be coordinated to replace
    it.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6tT4kaggbOiRo9vE5pmHE0d54Qp-GtPKGUGDE762KbRWg2MOJGHsGUbNfmedwQmduYeY9OSom= KMRLPqz3boh2u2mZZw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 32589209 31789182 30739139 30549135 30379132 30199147
    29999205 29959214 29939273 29889377 29949458 30239490
    30599497 30949464 31569397 31809363 32189318 32339290
    32589258 32709231 32589209=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Aug 22 13:55:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221355
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221354=20
    TXZ000-221600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2024
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023

    Areas affected...Lower/Middle TX Coast into TX Coastal Plain

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221354Z - 221600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms may become strong enough to produce a
    tornado or two as Tropical Storm Harold continues eastward into the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and Texas Coastal Plain.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows the center of
    Tropical Storm Harold is about 85 miles northeast of BRO (85 miles
    southeast of CRP), moving westward at 16 kt. Robust low to mid-level
    wind fields associated with this system continue to spread inland,
    with the CRP VAD showing a large area of 50+ kt easterlies from 3 to
    6 km AGL. These wind fields are fostering fast storm motion of due
    west around 30-35 kt, with Bunkers storm-motion estimates just a bit
    more northwesterly and slower. Current mesoanalysis estimates 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values around 150 m2/s2 for much of the
    Lower/Middle TX Coast.=20

    As is typical in tropical scenarios, most storms appear to have
    relatively shallow updrafts and short duration, limiting the ability
    for updraft rotation and tornado production. That being said, any
    updrafts that are able to persist and deepen, usually indicated by
    the presence of lightning and more deviant northwestward storm
    motion, could produce brief tornadoes. Current trends do not show
    any convective bands with storms exhibiting these characteristics.
    However, there is enough buoyancy in place to suggest this deepen
    could happen quickly, particularly in areas where cloud breaks allow
    for greater heating and/or higher theta-e closer to the center of
    the system.=20

    Current expectation is for isolated, short-lived nature of any
    deeper convection to limit the need for a watch. Even so, convective
    trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7svqfEua4o7f5n2q4MJmomceX-pxkDh1SOI_zubNIetZIenPuQzOtnWF0_M-qltEupISzYBKG= O_6iUdLrbbEhBX19GU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 26799749 26969830 28399833 29629750 29599622 29079529
    28449620 27879701 26799749=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)