• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2021

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 13 23:29:37 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 132329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132328=20
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2021
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0528 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

    Areas affected...northeastern South Dakota...southwestern North
    Dakota...and western Minnesota

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 132328Z - 140330Z

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates up to 1"/hr possible along with
    reduced visibility due to blowing snow.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low currently located over Nebraska continues
    to lift northeastward this evening. Across the Dakotas, favorable
    moisture profiles show deep saturation within the dendritic growth
    layer, which will allow for snowfall rates around 1"/hr. Recent
    surface observations show winds across central and eastern South
    Dakota gusting to around 30-40 mph. Areas of blowing snow will be
    possible, with reduced visibility. A transition zone from snowfall
    to mixed precipitation (rain and freezing rain) continues just east
    of the Big Sioux River, where surface temperatures are just above
    freezing. HREF ensemble forecasts indicate that the zone of heaviest
    snowfall rates of 1"/hr will continue to shift northward through the
    evening into portions of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota
    as the low continues to track north and east.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 12/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6igTmAFInEw6oGTFQIChmL3ACYGsska0KtHrGMmHiYUrR3FQdOby2-ueRcxhb-dgvRIZ-fR_o= J_j_HfF8eR2byNzZLY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46769845 47249784 47699716 47909667 47889625 47759600
    47569592 47209607 46809629 46589639 46309641 45889659
    45639659 45319666 45059662 44729664 44449667 44239674
    44209703 44229722 44089803 44009858 44079892 44409930
    44809941 44999939 45639900 46109889 46709854 46769845=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 14 00:24:39 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 140024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140023 COR
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-140330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2021
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0623 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

    Areas affected...northeastern South Dakota...southwestern North
    Dakota...and western Minnesota

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 140023Z - 140330Z

    CORRECTED FOR MISSING GRAPHIC

    SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates up to 1"/hr possible along with
    reduced visibility due to blowing snow.

    DISCUSSION...A surface low currently located over Nebraska continues
    to lift northeastward this evening. Across the Dakotas, favorable
    moisture profiles show deep saturation within the dendritic growth
    layer, which will allow for snowfall rates around 1"/hr. Recent
    surface observations show winds across central and eastern South
    Dakota gusting to around 30-40 mph. Areas of blowing snow will be
    possible, with reduced visibility. A transition zone from snowfall
    to mixed precipitation (rain and freezing rain) continues just east
    of the Big Sioux River, where surface temperatures are just above
    freezing. HREF ensemble forecasts indicate that the zone of heaviest
    snowfall rates of 1"/hr will continue to shift northward through the
    evening into portions of eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota
    as the low continues to track north and east.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 12/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5H_9BFRzEyTgYV5Z3eHYH1FOGkDTayxbDz_W4TzOrjoyStqMXKTEfhy6-fThZfpnesZaJXfLj= 5X8j1OxL2x62dqHrK4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45369945 45719933 46739840 47109801 47829685 48019639
    47659586 47029590 46699604 46319623 45459687 45019691
    44589725 44479805 44509916 45369945=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 21 19:59:42 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 211959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211958=20
    AZZ000-212230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2021
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211958Z - 212230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across east-central and southeast Arizona this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening
    cumulus across southeast/east-central AZ, between more widespread
    cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more
    persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ.=20
    This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization
    across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow
    modest destabilization across south-central/southeast AZ. Further destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and
    moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is
    expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level
    flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent
    mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt. As
    such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging
    gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will
    remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LLyf7MbeZBjB42erDM0YhXmHtiyIjLzG4UC-_yJOX7I1lDiC6IF44om431acRHwG9kvDZAmp= iW0H4sqbODtyS092VU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033
    34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973
    31411103=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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