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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2020

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Dec 13 23:05:06 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 132305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132304=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-140100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2020
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

    Areas affected...Northern Louisiana...Southeast Arkansas...Western
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 583...

    Valid 132304Z - 140100Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 583 continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to increase across southeast
    Louisiana and northeast Louisiana, and will likely affect parts of
    western Mississippi later this evening. Wind damage, tornadoes and
    isolated large hail will also be possible with the more intense
    storms. Weather watch issuance will likely become necessary to the
    east of the current watch later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar data out of Shreveport shows a
    line of organized storms extending from northeast Texas into
    southern Arkansas. A more isolated band of storms is ongoing in
    north-central Louisiana. This large area of convection will
    gradually move eastward and expand in coverage over the next few
    hours. Surface dewpoints ahead of these storms are generally in the
    lower to mid 60s F. As moisture advection continues this evening,
    instability will gradually rise. This, coupled with 0-6 km shear
    near 50 knots, will make conditions favorable for severe storms.
    This will include supercells and bow echoes. A wind damage threat
    will likely continue along the band which is moving through southern
    Arkansas. The tornado threat will be greater further to the south
    along this band near the Arkansas and Louisiana state line, where
    the combination of low-level shear and instability is more
    favorable. The tornado threat should increase as these discrete
    cells move eastward across far northern Louisiana over the next few
    hours. The potential for wind damage and tornadoes may also increase
    as the band in north-central Louisiana moves northeastward this
    evening. In areas to the east of Tornado Watch 583, the severe
    threat is expected to increase sometime after 01Z.

    ..Broyles/Grams.. 12/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ayXEkcFL4KjU09mFldYJGwLvJTXReMJG25px3D78lklu9jld9yjIHFafmzsKV9ql2cdKtLeV= dFD3wFwrG-thLJvYzg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33969226 33589295 33249326 32749330 32469297 32419221
    32459129 32569079 32869046 33379034 33889052 34189114
    33969226=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 21 19:48:11 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 211948
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211947=20
    AZZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2020
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0247 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest/West-Central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211947Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts may develop across south-central and southwest Arizona this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows some deepening
    cumulus across southwest/west-central AZ, between more widespread
    cumulus over the higher terrain near the AZ/NM border and a more
    persistent north/south oriented cloud band across central AZ.=20
    This persistent cloudiness has tempered heating and destabilization
    across central AZ thus far, but partly cloudy skies have allow
    modest destabilization across south-central/southwest AZ. Further destabilization is anticipated throughout the afternoon, and
    moisture convergence along this differential heating zone is
    expected to result in convective initiation. Strong low to mid-level
    flow extends throughout this region as well, with recent
    mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear from 35 to 45 kt. As
    such, any storms that area able to deepen and persist could become organized/supercellular with the potential to produce damaging
    gusts. Overall coverage of strong to severe storms appears it will
    remain isolated, likely precluding the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 08/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6TQQfu7AhQAFMEE4d6cv29g_ibdLW3ugzCwhoyunAJcJ7bM5gvchrkloxDSO5tD62M4XdKdYw= QzCT2uBz29w_adbfYA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31411103 32831163 34271174 34881159 35241114 35111033
    34540989 33500953 32700927 32180920 31470925 31340973
    31411103=20


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