ACUS11 KWNS 132012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132012=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northwest LA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 582...

Valid 132012Z - 132115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 582 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of greater supercell and tornado potential
appears to exist over northeast TX and northwest LA

DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have recently developed within
Cherokee and Gregg Counties in northeast TX. The air mass in the
vicinity of these storms is characterized by temperatures in the
low/mid 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg. These relatively modest thermodynamic conditions are paired
with robust kinematic fields. Recent VAD data from SHV sampled 50 kt
around 1 km, 0-1 km shear around 45-50 kt, and 0-1 km storm-relative
helicity over 500 m2/s2. Mesoanalysis estimates effective STP values
are around 3. This parameter space appears favorable for the
persistence of these supercells as well as additional new
development. Given the favorable wind fields, tornadoes are possible
over the next several hours, including the potential for a few
strong tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 12/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9O-IZ-Qd7jujdtsPWKGj0vdrfWIKI6HJlbbaOZcHFrUr6WxjbTNWVG7v8hgSBgn6ad7ipWqsA= wzLp8tza_c150Nf5VU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32369497 32729460 32939395 32459309 31629342 31219392
31179554 31699546 32369497=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 192019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192019=20
CAZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2023

Areas affected...San Joaquin Valley into the western Mojave Desert

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192019Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated strong to severe gusts will be
possible later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Initially steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing
moisture in advance of Hurricane Hilary will result in widely
scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across parts of
the San Joaquin Valley and western Mojave desert region. Recent
thunderstorm development has already been noted across northeast
Kern County, with storm coverage expected to increase over lower
elevation areas with time.=20

With low-level flow/shear expected to remain weak through the
afternoon, storms may quickly become outflow dominant. However,
increasing mid/upper-level flow (as noted on the KSOX and KEYX VWPs)
may support modestly organized and sustained convection, with one or
more outflow-driven clusters possible by late afternoon. Strong to
locally severe gusts will be possible as storms spread northward
through the afternoon into early evening across the San Joaquin
Valley.

..Dean/Grams.. 08/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-94167xCBjDTq_gtUjbwF4Af4THyYUmN33moiugbwe13nQzoF_67ueH5CimDN3Q7ymBARWCp= TxDW29YTxCeVdpt2JE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...STO...MTR...

LAT...LON 36291776 35181694 34881717 34731770 34651820 35151930
36312069 37072115 37732112 38072037 37501907 36291776=20


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