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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1988

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Nov 30 04:24:40 2022
    ACUS11 KWNS 300424
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300423=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-300530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1988
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1023 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into western and
    central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 300423Z - 300530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watches 573 and
    574, and is expected to continue into the overnight hours. A new
    Tornado Watch will be issued before 05Z to replace watches 573-574
    and cover additional area downstream into central Alabama.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to show transient but strong
    low-level rotation across portions of western AL, with a TDS
    recently indicated on a storm in the Greene/Hale County area. These
    storms are persisting in a highly sheared environment, with regional
    VADs and 04Z mesoanalysis showing large, curved hodographs and
    250-400 effective SRH. Low-level moisture and overall buoyancy
    becomes limited with eastward extent, though 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is
    in place across western AL, and the better low-level moisture (and
    MLCAPE) may slowly drift eastward into central Alabama later
    tonight. Supercell structures with transient low-level rotation may
    continue to pose a threat for at least isolated tornadoes into the
    overnight hours. As such, both Tornado Watches 573-574 will be
    replaced with a new Tornado Watch by 05Z, with some downstream
    coverage also expected as central AL destabilizes.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__Ex_qoOZtRAEJlYLU_EYA-V3EuUm9gsdoFIRic8Q1vMgjXgoKi1_KXCSgDB_dCfNc9NSsJzy= hCWeKxnihZWeWBqF3A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 31268714 31348815 31398857 31708910 32008909 32538870
    33418828 33628785 33508733 33198663 32618625 32178625
    31828644 31438675 31268714=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Aug 14 03:42:25 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 140342
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140342=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-140545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1988
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

    Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma...adjacent southeastern Kansas...northwestern Arkansas into southern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642...644...645...

    Valid 140342Z - 140545Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642, 644,
    645 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm development will persist and slowly
    spread eastward through 1-2 AM CDT, posing a continuing risk for
    damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A weakly organized convective cluster continues slowly
    spreading east-northeastward across the northwestern through north
    central Oklahoma vicinity, around the northwestern periphery of the
    mid-level subtropical ridge. This ridging will continue to slowly
    become suppressed southward overnight, as a significant short wave
    trough continues to dig through the mid into lower Missouri Valley.

    Through 05-07Z, the latest Rapid Refresh indicates that the
    associated developing cold front will continue to slowly advance
    southward through northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri.=20
    Seasonably high moisture content lifted above the leading edge of
    the low-level cooling likely will remain characterized by large
    CAPE, and supportive of continuing strong thunderstorm development
    across the Tulsa OK area into the West Plains MO vicinity. Aided by
    favorable shear on the southern periphery of the mid-level
    westerlies, scattered strong to severe surface gusts will remain
    possible.

    ..Kerr.. 08/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7lNiNzaRgFAWnwncsaoXRROIrzL4ryP8frGcC7YHw9Lz34BMWul0Uox0QH3oBNQ84cP4kL9kh= VTca2oQ7tOEhqF6PDM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

    LAT...LON 36529704 36899605 37289430 37409312 37319203 36529164
    36139362 35639547 35589749 36529704=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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